1. In your opinion, why is UMNO so keen on freeing Najib? Is it because they view him as their potential "savior" to win back Malay support?
Najib to UMNO is like Erling Haaland to Manchester City, in football terms, Najib is definitely UMNO's superstar striker, he can score 'goals' and provide big 'assists' for UMNO, winning back votes and seats for UMNO, which desperately needs such a turnaround in their political fortunes.
How strong is his 'firepower': his social media influence?
Here are his follower numbers on some key platforms:
4.1 million (Twitter), 4.6 million (Facebook), 1 million (Instagram).
He often knows how to create a hot topic of discussion with his witty short comments, poking fun at political opponents.
His influence is not only on social media, but look at the whirlwind he created wherever he went (when he was still a free man). His star power cannot be overstated, and he is likely to retain it and has the ability to draw large crowds.
Looking at the by-election results since the Tanjung Piai by-election, and recalling the outcome of 2 major state elections in Melaka and Johor, Najib's involvement had certainly helped the case and brought the most favourable results for UMNO.
Compare again what has happened to UMNO since Najib is in jail? UMNO and BN could only win 30 seats in GE15, another half of their last so-called worst performance in GE14. What's more damning? UMNO-BN lost their votes to PN because the latter was said to have a more influential and effective social media campaign!
Those in UMNO who want Najib’s release are surely hoping he will help the campaign, especially in the crucial upcoming 6 state elections.
2. Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaacob has described the alliance between PH and UMNO as a "forced marriage." Do you agree with this description, and what implications could it have for the Unity Government?
I do not think that the political alliance between PH and UMNO is a "forced marriage", but see it as a "marriage of convenience" - both sides, especially the leaders, are willing parties, more than happy to hold hands and join forces as long as they can share the spoils of government and stay in power. UMNO could have gotten a worse deal if it had been "forced" to form a coalition government with PN; similarly, PH doesn't have enough seats to form a government on its own, and would certainly be happy if the "kingmaker" UMNO-BN decided to back PH to lead the new government after GE15.
But what Ismail Sabri said could have implications for UMNO's reputation and image. He made UMNO sound like it was compromising too much, forced to play second fiddle to PH, the former political opponent UMNO always tries to demonise. Ismail Sabri's statement could be perceived and resonate with traditional UMNO supporters, especially by casting doubt on the party's unchallenged president, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
3. With the Royal pardon petition to free Najib gaining momentum, could this jeopardize the stability of the ruling Unity Government coalition?
If political mileage is the only consideration, rather than principles of justice, even PH would have much to gain from a royal pardon for Najib. They might want UMNO to strengthen their hands and not concede any more seats to the PN in the upcoming 6 state elections. Moreover, if it were a decision by the royalty, "at the king's discretion" as Law Minister Azalina claimed, the government should not be implicated in influencing it.
However, it took Transport Minister and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke to issue a statement distancing the government from the royal pardon petition and saying that it was UMNO's stance to support it. He only said that the matter was never discussed in the cabinet meeting, stopping short of saying that he or his party colleagues disagreed with the royal pardon petition. In fact, not many politicians in the unity government have voiced their objections. It is unclear how this petition could threaten the stability of the government, but if members of the ruling coalition are seen not to be helping, or worse, blocking UMNO's efforts, tensions could arise.
4. If Najib is freed, what political costs could Anwar and PH potentially face?
PN supporters would definitely call the bluff of Anwar and PH's anti-corruption stance if the government's efforts were impartial or merely for political convenience: how could a convicted person with strong evidence of corruption go free while their PN leaders are now being investigated and 'harassed' by the corruption charges? PN supporters would cry injustice and claim victimhood, and this could reinforce the perception among ordinary people that the government is selectively prosecuting to score political points. Certainly, PH supporters would defend that this is not the government's position and that it is unfair to accuse their leaders, but this news may not go down well with many.
5. Will UMNO lose more Malay support to Perikatan National if they continue to push for Najib's release?
UMNO would definitely like to have Najib's superstar power to help with the campaign to deter the PN; it is a safer bet that UMNO stands to gain more if Najib is released.
On the other hand, if Najib does not get his wish, UMNO would have to face the louder music from the PN.
From a technical point of view, as there are still a number of charges against Najib that have not been completed in court, there could be some risks if Najib could be sent back to jail for other convictions... Then there is the question of if Najib is released now on royal pardon, what about later, could he get another chance?
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