Thursday, March 25, 2021

坦诚谦卑宣导疫苗接种

17世纪启蒙时代的崛起,正是哲学思想家欲摆脱中古宗教教条挂帅的黑暗时代,以科学方式寻找真相和事实的客观确定性,并相信这过程产生可靠的启蒙知识。

笛卡尔式质疑正是哲学其一特征方式:系统性怀疑一个群众普遍相信的真相,通过质疑论证。这个过程为了建立事实的确定性(certainty)。而康德的《纯粹理性批判》著作里解释和区分两种知识产生的方式:先验(A priori)和后验(A posteriori)。前者依靠分析得出,后者则胥视经验证据。科学知识,一般都是后验命题,通过反复对某事物的试验观察后得到的经验论据。

所谓的确定性变数或误差也取决于研究方式和衡量方法的局限,因此某些知识或事物的确定性,若依赖后验方式,无法在当下得知。比如说17世纪科学家对天文地理乃至生物的研究,随著科技的进步和知识的累积,能够突破更多的客观的局限探测到从前所不能及的事项,比如说微生物的存在由显微镜的进步而证实,宇宙天体研究也因望远镜科技突破而有新发现。

虽然科学家可从目前的认知掌握的知识,估计和衍生某个事实的确定性有多大,但对无法掌握的局限必须坦诚其未知数,纵使是微乎其微的可能性。科学知识传递如果无法坦诚透露这些未知数,而只是为了信心喊话把未知说成绝对,这就不是科学(的诚实)。

政府断言言之过早

上周闹得满城风雨议论纷纷的是槟城中央医院一名女护士接种疫苗后死亡病例,马来媒体《大都会日报》因刊登“女护士接种疫苗后死于心脏病”的耸动新闻标题而惹祸,引来科学、工艺及革新部长凯里不满,并公开抨击与问话该报主编。

隔天槟州卫生局主任阿斯玛雅尼医生发表文告以正视听,叙述该死者接种疫苗后的医药相关事故。但文告里最大的问题是她宣布法医剖析结果是该护士死于心脏病,由于没有出现其他的过敏性症状迹象,因此她截铁斩钉断言这死亡案例与疫苗接种无关。

首先,纵使现有证据无法显示该护士因疫苗接种后引发副作用导致死亡,但要排除一切其他的可能性还言之过早。瑞辉疫苗的接种应用还很新,即使是早期参与临床实验者很多目前仅看到接种效应半年,长期副作用还是个未知数(虽然大部分的副作用都会在短期内出现)。

所谓疫苗接种副作用的后期事故呈报系统,列表上有至少超过10项可能症状需要观察和记载:过敏性反应仅是其中一两项。再言,造成心肌埂塞的原因良多且复杂,文告里仅解释该护士有高血压记录,并没有说明她有心脏病前科,而接种疫苗后第4天出现呼吸困难不舒适,第5天就不幸过世。这难免让公众怀疑其疫苗接种的关联性。

我认为,政府最合理和应该的说辞,不是断然否定的信心喊话,而是坦诚宣布说明基于现有证据,这起死亡案极大可能与疫苗接种无关,还必须承诺会继续调查和研究疫苗接种的副作用,若有什么新发现必然告知民众。

部分公众的存疑

全国疫苗接种计划目前不是强制,要在一年内达到全国八成人口的疫苗接种覆盖率谈何容易。19岁以下的人口已占了总人口的32%,同时有相当可观数目的乐龄人士对疫苗接种还抱著观望和怀疑态度。更令人担忧的是,根据去年底卫生部的调查问卷,有接近1/3的被访者表示不确定或不接受疫苗接种。面对不信任疫苗的成年人人口,这是卫生部欲达到群体免疫目标的最大挑战。毕竟,即使将来可以允许孩童接种疫苗,也必须经过家长的同意。

政府日前宣布批准一笔1000万令吉基金提供新冠疫苗接种危害特别援助,愿意为因疫苗接种后产生严重副作用的公众人士承担赔偿责任。虽然这个原本属于疫苗制造厂的责任(合约里他们却要求免责),但政府为了增加民众对疫苗接种的信心而担当这些风险,理应获得赞赏。

这其实也间接表示政府承认疫苗接种不能说完全没有风险,但权衡新冠病毒感染的风险,疫苗接种肯定是利大于弊。事实上已有相当多研究数据显示,疫苗可让接种者避免患上严重疾病及死亡。

政府宣导应有的态度

因此,政府在宣导和鼓励人们接受疫苗接种的时候,必须采取负责任、谨慎、诚实与开放的态度,坦诚且谦卑地告诉人民自己知道和未知的事。虽然经过国家药剂监管局(NPRA)审核批准的药品一般上已通过了高格的安全标准,副作用风险纵使很低但不是完全没有。

政府官员和政治人物可以宣称疫苗基本上是安全的,但不必大拍胸膛说保证没事、绝对安全、大家不用怕等类似的信心喊话。我希望政府能放弃或摆脱傲慢权威式的问答方式,因为这会暴露出他们缺乏严谨的科学态度。不恰当的宣导沟通反而会产生更多和更大的公众质疑,因为在资讯发达的时代,人们可从网络或社交媒体轻易获取相反的资讯来反证这些风险的存在,进一步巩固他们不接受疫苗接种的决心。

这正是政府的科学风险沟通奥妙的难处——如何能虚心接受事故发生的低风险可能,同时说服存疑的公众不要过度夸大疫苗接种风险的危害。

刊登于《東方日報》東方文薈版《群議良策》專欄2021年3月24日

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

BFM Interview 23 March 2021: Vaccine registration

 Podcast is here: https://www.bfm.my/podcast/evening-edition/inside-story/enhancing-mysejahtera-central-to-managing-the-pandemic#

ENHANCING MYSEJAHTERA CENTRAL TO MANAGING THE PANDEMIC

Dr. Mahesh Appannan, Deputy Director, Crisis Preparedness Response Centre at MOH | Dr. Helmi Zakaria, Project Director, Selangkah | Dr Lim Chee Han, Senior Researcher, Third World Network and Co-Founder of Agora Society

23-Mar-21 18:00

With MySejahtera playing a huge part in ensuring Malaysians register for the vaccination programme, we speak to experts in the field about its current limitations, how the gaps can be addressed and what technology can do in the battle against COVID-19.

***


1. Is MySejahtera the best way to approach vaccine registrations?

It would be one of the good options for the people to register for vaccine, as it is already commonly used by most people in daily life for registering and checking in places.

Since this is an active app, it would be good for people to check and keep track of the status in one place, rather than having other technical issues, for example, not receiving the email or sms… these notifications might get easily lost or overlooked.

 

2. How does this compare to the way that other countries have registered their citizens?

I did some quick searches on several countries coming to my mind: Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, UK and Canada. All these countries provide an appointment booking system on their own dedicated health authority website. Some do provide options for people to book by phone or the person could drop by his or her own clinic for registration.

In Malaysia, we also provide ways to register our own residents via government’s dedicated website vaksincovid.gov.my as well as registration by calling a hotline (you can find the number on the website)

 

3. What are some zero tech options that the government could expand on?

The website registration method would still require people to have at least a mobile phone or a computer. Phone dial in method could be challenging if the volume of calls is huge and waiting time is long.

If the government could identify localities where the registration in the community is low, then it is better for the district health officers go to the ground and start the vaccination registration campaign. It would be helpful especially to those who can access to registration help with ease and convenience. Furthermore, the health officers could communicate with the locals, trying to answer some people’s doubts and queries, as a way to convince them joining the vaccination drive later.

 

4. What experiences does Malaysia have in rolling out vaccines and what lessons can we take from there for the Covid-19 vaccine rollouts?

Malaysia has very successful national immunisation programme for the newborns and children, with immunisation coverage over 95% for many categories of vaccine-preventable diseases. Our statistics is higher than the world’s average.

The success of the ongoing national immunisation campaign is due to engagement and follow ups from the community or health clinic teams with the new parents. They start engaging with the parents once they received the notification that a newborn is officially registered. The government who make this programme a regular daily routine, and now it is the bedrock for our functioning public health system.

Though this time it is slightly different, the vaccine is going to the adults and the elderly themselves, not their children. Therefore, this might need further persuasion. One thing we can learn from our own successful national immunisation programme is that, the local health care team could provide the crucial link to the local community, the mere physical presence could provide the necessary interaction and communication, stands better chance to persuade people to join the covid-19 vaccination.

 

5. According to the Selangor Task Force for Covid-19, 90% of the elderly in the state have not registered for the vaccine. How user-friendly is the app from your point of view?

I do not think that the app is the main problem for the elderly not registering for the vaccine. If they would like to do that, they could have already asked their friends, children or even grandchildren to help. I guess the main issue must be the vaccine hesitancy they show. It is hardly surprising to learn that, from the MOH vaccination survey last December, a third of respondents either hesitate or outright reject vaccination.

If the app or the website could be the issue, then maybe some elderly who are not well versed with either English or BM, they might find it daunting to register. Perhaps the government should provide Tamil and Chinese option for them to register.

 

6. What other forms of outreach might be the right way for this group of people?

The government can communicate better through media such as TV ads, radio channels, mainstream media, trying to present the information as clearly and as laymen as possible. It would be best targeting at addressing some fears or doubts from this demographic group. Lastly, it would be good if the local health authority could make their own presence in the community, to start promoting the programme and persuading the local people to sign up for vaccination. If these strategies still do not work, then the government has to review their messaging and find out why it didn’t work.

The government should work together with the local NGOs and elected representatives for promoting vaccination programme due to the latter's extensive network on the ground. People in the communities would be more familiar with the local faces hence easier to be approached and persuaded.


Saturday, March 20, 2021

八度空間華語新聞【大封锁一周年专题】特別專訪

題:高官双标公众渐松懈防疫 抗疫马拉松急需自律守法

封城锁国抵御疫情已经超过一年,人们早已经适应出门戴口罩、维持肢体距离,不过从平民百姓、网红、人民代议士到高官显要违反防疫规定的事件层出不穷。

有民众认为不会这么倒霉轻易中罚单或者感染上病毒,所以开始松懈没有严格守法防疫。究竟这是政府防疫不力、双重执法标准,或是平民、高官自律不强、配合度不高?

适逢3月18号行动管制令实施满1年,本台走访市民、医生、政策研究员和人民代议士,一起来反思抗疫马拉松过程中,自律守法和执法规定的双重挑战。



訪談手稿:

1.     1.去一年,我国反复落实MCOCMCORMCO,疫情依旧严峻,是政府的防疫措施不够好,还是人民(包括官员VIP)醒觉/纪律不够强?

答:其实所谓的行动管制令,不管是什么字母开头的MCO,名目不重要,但实际有效的防疫措施严格程度才是关键。不仅讲究严格,当局也必须要有执行力。类似的行动管制令,其实环球举世实施的措施和方式都蛮相近:英国牛津大学旗下的Blavatnik school of government从去年3月开始就有个新冠肺炎政府应对措施跟踪指标(covid-19 government response tracker),里面举出的16项措施类别,我国都随着疫情的严重性履行大部分。那么为何第二波疫情我国政府控制得相当好,第三波又这么难搞呢?是政府的防疫措施做得不够好,还是执行这些的时候面对难题,比如执行不周、时间点不对,还有人民是否有纪律遵守。如果是新的SOP,政府没有宣传沟通好,人民不知情或没有醒觉是一回事,一些旧的SOP如在特定场合要带口罩、签到登记登门记录和保持每个人之间的人身距离,这个已不能说人民没有觉醒了。

由于行管令影响的不只是公共卫生层面,还有经济和社会层面,毕竟国人仍需要糊口和社交。第三波开始的行管令更多时候是穷追和对应疫情的趋势和严重性。经历了第二波疫情对经济的重创后,政府可能有迟疑,不太愿意太早实施有损经济的行管令措施,结果拿捏不对,对落实或松绑某种措施的时间点上可能迟了或早了一些,比如说跨县跨州限制,结果导致病毒早已广泛传开散播了。说真的,这不太容易,但政府其实更应该依据疫情的发展分析和数据来作决定,卫生部合理的风险评估分析和适时提议应该更被注重和听取。

相比之下,许多国家尤其是欧美西方国家,自去年8月以来也栽在新一波的疫情恶化,这反映出一般人对严格遵守防疫措施的厌倦和怠惰,这情况在我国也差不多如此。但这也不能完全错怪人民,毕竟第三波的源头在于沙巴州选竞选活动混合当时疫情泛滥的邻国无证移民进出漏洞百出的边防,政府的后知后觉未能及时封堵,结果再次把病毒传遍全国。

 

2. 政府落实某防疫措施,评估疫情风险的同时,也考量很多其他因素,eg经济,人民是否应该盲目跟随政府的绿灯?(譬如:RMCO区开放旅游,浮罗交怡即刻涌现游客潮,引发传染风险。即使不犯法,但有人批评人民醒觉不够。)

答:如果政府定义RMCO在于该州或该区已处于较低可控制的社区感染风险,那么RMCO州属之间有一些贸易、经济活动和人流来往无可厚非,毕竟去年78月的RMCO时期人民也经历过,那时的单日新增病例也超低。问题是,很多人不明白SOP的用意,比如说政府允许RMCO之间跨州旅游,但一定要坐旅游巴士而不可以亲自开车。这点,我认为政府总是没有依据科学论述来解释为何有这个或那个SOP,人民自然更难以捉摸和跟从;再加上有些高官等大人物有时持双重标准,人民更加生气。

所以,即便政府放宽了行管令措施,人民还是得遵守SOP才行,毕竟全民疫苗接种计划可能最早还需要到明年初才能达成目标。

 

2.     3.有另一派说辞,即须学会与病毒共存,不能够永远不社交、不外出堂食,只要不犯法做又何妨?你怎么看?

 

答:要彻底消灭新冠病毒,这是全世界要一起努力做的事。目前大规模的疫苗接种是其中一个很重要的策略,至少要先减缓病毒散播扩散。因此,我们确实已与病毒共存了,还要坚持多一段时间。

没错,政府的公共卫生政策和措施必须要合理兼顾其他社会层面,尤其是经济和社交活动。所以,行管令的松紧严格程度必须端视疫情发展趋势:疫情严重的时候必须要跟着严格,反之若有好转和放缓,就必须按步开放和放宽行管令措施。

 

3.     4.一千到一万令吉罚款,是否真的能够起到阻吓效果?但与此同时掀起执法不当、政府双标的问题,提高罚款是否防疫上策?

 

答:罚款不可能是防疫的主要工具,因此要靠它而已不能奏效,即使执法妥当。问题是,所谓的罚款惩罚的公信力不在,人民不能够认同没戴口罩、没登记入门记录等需要缴付巨额罚款,而不是要求完全豁免罚款。在刑事法律精神上,任何惩罚的程度必须要与犯错的严重性伤害性相辅相成。因此,如果有过高的罚款,这不能看作纯粹是要达到阻吓的效果。你看,即使是交通规则也有轻重之分,不是吗?为何超速和闯红灯都甚至不需要罚款到一千元,但不戴口罩则是一万?这说不过去。

 




Friday, March 19, 2021

RM10,000 is not fine (GBM statement)


Gabungan Bertindak Malaysia (GBM) urges the government to consider revising the RM10,000 fine limit or to specify the types of severity of violation under the movement control order.

The severity of such offences should proportionately correspond to the amount of the fine.

In criminal law, the principle of proportional justice is used to convey the idea that the harshness of the punishment should be proportionate to the gravity of the offence or the severity of the crime itself. Given that the movement control order is an order derived in accordance with the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases Act 1988 and the coronavirus pandemic is still a serious public health threat, we can understand that violation of certain standard operating procedures should result in a reasonable amount of penalty.

In this regard, we do not ask the authorities to waive all kinds of compounds and penalties for violators of the standard operating procedure, but RM10,000 as the default fine amount – raised from the previous RM1,000 and implemented since 11 March – seems to be out of proportion.

For example, the authorities should justify whether the kind of risk or severity of damage likely to be caused just by not wearing a mask in public places or failure to register for the MySejahtera check-in at the premise is commensurate with a RM10,000 fine. Whereas for the worst first category traffic offence such as speeding, exceeding 40km/h of the limit, the compound is only RM300 maximum.

In 2017, a Bank Negara Malaysia survey revealed a shocking finding that three out of four Malaysians could not even raise RM1,000 of immediate cash money for emergencies. The median salary or wage of employees in Malaysia was RM2,308 in 2018.

Hence, a RM10,000 fine looks hugely out of proportion to the severity of violation that may be committed. Therefore, this is not fine, but a huge burden for many ordinary people who are already financially struggling during the movement control order period.

Although the authorities claim that there would be a mechanism of discretion to lower the fine amount, there is no guarantee.

We propose that the government should first stratify the fine amount reasonably and clearly according to the severity of the movement control order violation. Only then can the appeal process to lower the compound amount on a case-by-case basis be justified.

Otherwise, with the default RM10,000 fine, this could easily breed corruption among certain officers who might extort a higher bribe amount due to the recent hike.

We could agree that certain groups of offenders such as venue operators, event organisers or employers who put many at risk may have to bear a higher quantum of fine, as they can be differentiated from other individual violators. Also, for repeat offenders, it may even be justifiable to raise the fine amount or jail term.

We wish the government would reconsider its decision. To many, even a RM1,000 fine is already harsh and deterrent enough, why the need for a RM10,000 fine, which is not fine?

Badlishah Sham Baharin is chair of Gabungan Bertindak Malaysia. This piece was issued on behalf of the GBM executive council


(P/s: this statement i helped drafting, part of my intellectual collection)

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

新冠疫苗:答疑解惑~線上講座疫情系列(3)

已在2月28日主講的講座,與新冠疫苗相關知識。



新冠疫苗:答疑解惑~線上講座疫情系列(3)

日期:2021 年 2 月 28 日(星期日)
時間:2:30p.m.-4:00p.m.
主講:林志翰博士(感染生物學)
主持:莊端嚴博士(生物藥劑學)

簡介:
新冠肺炎疫情已經蔓延超過一年,各方還沒有看到疫情何時能夠終結。可喜的是近期的全球性單日確診數字已經開始有下降的趨勢,一些國家的疫苗接種或許已經開始見效。
我國已經預購了美國製藥公司輝瑞(Pfizer)、英國製藥公司阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)、中國的科興生物(Sinovac)、中國的康希諾生物(CanSinoBio)和俄羅斯的加馬列亞研究中心( Gamaleya,Sputnik V)的冠病疫苗。首相慕尤丁於 2 月 4 日宣布政府將於今年 2 月底至 2022 年 2 月展開“國家新冠免疫計劃”,並將在全國設立超過 600 個新冠疫苗儲存中心,分三階段免費為全國八成人口或 2650 萬人接種新冠疫苗,以達成群體免疫的效果。於 2020 年 10 月 14 日成立的保證獲取新冠病毒疫苗特別委員會也於 2 月 11 日宣布此“國家新冠肺炎免疫計劃”也將惠及居住在馬來西亞的非公民,這符合其主旨,即“保護自己,保護所有人”。
另外,依據媒體報導,由馬來西亞理科伊斯蘭大學(USIM)所展開的調查問卷顯示,居於 1406 名受訪者對新冠疫苗的接受及了解程度問卷中,只有 43%的大馬人對新冠肺炎疫苗有良好的基礎知識。在所有受訪者中,有 65%的人士同意接種疫苗;大多數受訪者也認為該疫苗可以保護他們免受感染,只有 33%的人認為新冠疫苗可能無效。明顯的是還有許多人對疫苗的認識不深,對其原理、種類、適用性、接種方式、成效、安全性和副作用等或有疑惑。如果你想了解更多以解除疑惑,歡迎一起來聆聽這疫情系列講座三:【新冠疫苗:答疑解惑】。
我們很榮幸能 夠獲得專長於感染生物學的林志翰博士為我們分享。林博士的學位包括德國漢諾威醫學院感染生物學博士,也是英國倫敦帝國理工學院免疫學碩士及生物科技學士。他目前擔任第三世界網絡(Third World Network)的高級研究員、東方日報和透視大馬(英文)專欄作者、 時評人、也是群議社 Agora Society 創辦人之一。此外,林博士非常關心環保與社會正義課題,支持馬來西亞民主政治改革,目前主要研究領域為公共醫療衛生。
很難得的是專長於生物藥劑學的莊端嚴博士已經答應主持這場講座。莊博士畢業於馬來西亞理科大學(USM)藥學院,是一位馬來西亞註冊藥劑師。他在日本政府(文部科學所:MEXT)獎學金 的贊助下在 日本熊本國立大學完成藥學碩士和博士學位。他目前是馬來西亞國際醫科大學(IMU)藥學院副教授,西澳珀斯科廷大學(Curtin University)藥學院客座副教授、 熊本崇城大學藥學大學院、東京慶應大學藥學大學院客員準教授、也是馬來西亞藥劑師會(Malaysia Pharmacist Society,MPS)與中馬鐘靈校友會永久會員。


現場開播鏈接:https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=3710801665641096&ref=watch_permalink



(still unpublished) interview 3.3.2021 - On COVID-19 data


1.  An overview: How has the government fared in terms of publishing Covid-19 data and figures? Is it transparent enough?

To be honest, if the public would like to understand the general COVID-19 trends and development in the country, state or even district level, the current data provided by the government might be sufficient for general public consumption. Just in one go, let me try to illustrate what kind of daily data provided by our government: new cases and active cases, from national down to mukim level, new and existing cluster updates, number of people tested, number of death, number of patients admitted to ICU and those who need ventilator, imported cases and country origin, cumulative cases and risk level by colour code for all districts based on past 14 days local infection cases, non-citizens statistics updates, daily surveillance cases, as well as R values.

As a health data researcher myself who manually key in some of the covid-19 data everyday, one big inconvenient fact is that, many of the data provided is in image format, it is hardly convenient for people to do any sort of data analysis. Most of the data also are not provided in timeline format, so unless one does data input like me everyday or get the data from such person, it is impossible to see the long term trends yourself.

Of course, government could also provide further breakdown of case data according to characteristic: I refer to Australia’s Victoria State and Hong Kong’s health department , they also provide breakdown to cases by age and gender, mode of transmission or mode of case detection; I refer to Singapore’s Ministry of Health, they provide breakdown to cases by symptomatic and asymptomatic (which our MOH used to provide in certain surveillance groups); I refer to New Zealand’s Ministry of Health, they provide breakdown to active cases by current location (how many are in managed facilities or hospitals, at home or self-isolation, or in ICU). Not to say that Malaysia is doing badly because we do have some data categories some other countries do not provide in daily updates.

There are also instances it is debatable to publish certain granular and specific data such as Hong Kong they publish current location of active cases down to building level, Singapore they name the company or location of the infected person is working or living or having activities.

So, if you ask me about whether the government is transparent enough, that sounds like if the question is about whether the government has some data to hide and can justify so. Given the public stigmatization on covid-19 is so great, the identity exposure of the group of people, workplace or public space probably would not help containing the local infection but hurting the community for a considerable period.  So, first the authority should ask if the data release would be helpful in their disease containment strategies and better health protection; what could be the downside of such action, for example, creating negative social impacts, unnecessary public panicky and witchhunting.  Some data are difficult to understand or worse if one does not understand properly the implication or interpretation of data, this would risk certain people twisting and interpreting the fact wrongly, this could create public fear and anxiety. Thus, for certain data, it is actually wise to share with only relevant authorities and competent data researchers via different channels, not in the open.

 

2.  The channels they have opted to use are Telegram, Instagram, KKM website, MySejahtera. And also Live PCs by the Health DG. Could there be better, and more coordinated methods that the government could use, in light of how our culture/society uses technology?

Currently almost all COVID-19 info is aggregated and coordinated in the COVID-19 dedicated website covid-19.moh.gov.my , including state-district-mukim levels daily data. This should serve as the main source of information. Telegram channel has a little more data on the case distribution map and new cluster illustration, but it is difficult to navigate using that app, especially if you want to track historical data.

For live PCs by the Health DG, these days he reduced the frequency of such PCs, it would be helpful for the MOH to communicate issues concerning them directly to the public, media can get to enquire and get further clarification and response on some matters. Even the PC videos are also uploaded on the dedicated website I mentioned.

For most urgent and important info, most of the population who has a mobile number will get updates from the National Security Council (MKN) via SMS. And some health information will get broadcast on TV and radio. Therefore I think the government has used plenty of right channels at different technology levels to disseminate the info catering to many layers of society, so the bigger issue is more about the messaging clarity and effectiveness.

 

3. There have been arguments about how the data published is not granular enough. Is there a need for granular Covid-19 data and what can it be used for?

I have somehow mentioned on this issue when I responded to your earlier question. Some form of most granular Covid-19 data should be restricted to the usage of relevant authorities and competent researchers, for example mySejahtera contact tracing data. The authority should have responsibility to protect the identity of patient, workplace, or public places but leave the decision to the premise or the individual to make public announcement themselves. Relevant authorities should have such data to act upon, whether to do contact tracing, closure or sanitization of premise.

 

4. Dr Jemilah mentioned that data scientists have been hired to go through the government's Covid data to see how it can be useful towards the fight against Covid. In your opinion, how can the data on hand be useful in the fight against Covid?

We need to understand the limitation of data technology too. For example, the MySejahtera app data can tell the authority who were at the same site during certain period, it couldn’t tell the authority how the people interact. Even if the app is working as best as the South Korea’s app measuring the period and distance of contact between one another, it still couldn’t tell you whether the two persons if they wear mask, if they hug or shake hands, or if the measurement is just between the mobile phones lying on the dining table next to each other.

For contact tracing, while the granular data could be still useful as a reference even though it may be very noisy data, it still has to go back to the health personal who is trained to do contact tracing via personal interview to find out who could carry the bigger risk.

To me, it would be useful to look at the local transmission data and analyse the pattern significance, then it would be very informative for the local health authority to take action to respond timely, whether to do targeted mass screening at certain locality or improve the SOP there. This is where the granular data could help.

 

5. JKJAV has begun announcing daily vaccination dose figures & registration numbers. Is this necessary, and why?


In my opinion, the daily vaccination dose figures and numbers would help and is necessary, so that public would know the progress of our National COVID-19 Immunisation Programme. That is the bare minimum for transparency to keep the public informed, give them the confidence about the programme and perhaps rally or excite them to take part. But whether the government should publish the data down to district level or Vaccination Administration Centres at this moment, I guess this could be debatable, I think maybe not necessary now.

 

6. In an ideal world, what would be the best way to disseminate news about the vaccination programme to the whole nation? How could it be pulled off?

 

The programme publicity cannot be all top-down, one cannot underestimate the power of peer-influence. Besides the current variety of channels and technology platforms the government is using, the government should rally the support from the grassroot local community organisations and groups to help promoting the programme and get the people registered. It is always most persuasive if the people in your family and neighbourhood start talking about the programme and vaccine, show willingness to participate the vaccination. 

 

 

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

為何要接種疫苗?

慈濟【二台午餐會 | 馬來西亞】20210312 採訪

馬來西亞新冠疫苗的接種計劃於是在上個月的24日開跑,截至昨天早上8點,全國已經有超過5百萬名大馬人註冊排隊接種疫苗。根據最新的數據,已經有20萬人成功接種新冠疫苗,而檳城這裡也有接近1萬人接種了第一劑的疫苗。


聯合國秘書長古特雷斯,在接種第一劑新冠疫苗的時候,就說了一番有意思的話。他說,接種疫苗是道義上的義務。通過接種疫苗,每個人都在為整個社區提供服務,因為接種了疫苗後,我們就可以避免成為病毒攜帶者和散播者。所以鼓勵接種疫苗是具有道德意義的。新冠疫苗對你我而言都還很陌生,難免會對它的安全性及有效性有所疑慮,但只要我們願意去了解它,並且相信數據與科學,疫苗其實並不可怕。


***
以下是我準備的訪問回應手稿:

為什麼要接種疫苗?

為什麼要接種疫苗?首先大家要考慮到新冠肺炎對公共健康的危害,以及染病後的風險。儘管總體來說新冠肺炎的死亡率並不算太高,但是它相對容易傳染。人口當中有不少高風險群體可能會受害,這些人也可能包括自己的至親朋友,所以我們要保護自己也要保護其他人。

這就是有效的疫苗可以達到的功能。目前在全球疫苗接種運動正如火如荼進行當中,其中使用的疫苗已證實有效能抑制病情惡化和死亡,再來就是減低被感染的風險(即使沒有完全消除這風險)。病毒的傳播將受大大限制,如果國家能在一個期限內達至群體免疫效果,那麼疫苗保護就有加乘作用,保護那些因一些原因暫時不能接種疫苗的人士。

 

誰需要接種疫苗?誰不能接種疫苗?

目前任何十八歲以上的成年人,只要不是處於免疫功能低下狀態或有特定急性過敏反應的人,皆可接種疫苗。風險越高的群體,應該先接種。政府已設定了一些公平程序,避免有心人要插隊。

最初被排除在外的群體,不一定是因為他們不適合接種,而是因為這些疫苗的大型臨床試驗沒有包含這些群體,所以沒有安全性資料。不過,隨後已有越來越多資料顯示,當中的一些群體已可以接受接種了,包括孕婦、哺乳媽媽、艾滋病病患及癌症病患等。在某些情況,一些群體只是被要求延遲接種疫苗而已,不是被禁止。比如說,剛接受化療或骨髓移植的癌症病患或使用任何抑制免疫反應藥物的病患,或許最好與您的專治醫生商量和討論何時才適合接種疫苗。

 

會不會有副作用?會不會改變DNA?

針筒打入肌肉的疫苗通常會有一些輕微的副作用,這些副作用包括:肌肉腫脹疼痛、疲憊、頭痛、頭暈、發燒、發冷或關節痛等的症狀。目前面世使用的主要疫苗,數據上顯示疫苗導致嚴重症狀比如說急性過敏症或死亡相當罕見,媒體上大肆報道的零星幾宗當局還在研究當中。

通常第一針的副作用反應比較小,第二針的反應較大和快速多了。這其實很正常。比如說肌肉腫脹疼痛,其實是免疫細胞聚集去注射處處理疫苗帶來的外來物,這是打造抗毒免疫辨識和反應的重要一環。第二針的反應更大和迅速是因為經過了第一次的免疫辨識刺激後,後天免疫細胞和抗體已出現了,人體就更迅速地使用更強大的免疫炮火直接對壘疫苗外來物,再度刺激免疫系統提高產量和增加抗毒的精準和成熟度。放心,這些副作用通常不會嚴重也不會致命,但必須謹慎觀察變化。

疫苗不會改變一個人的DNA或基因組,這些疫苗也包括病毒載體疫苗如AstraZeneca mRNA疫苗如瑞輝疫苗。這些借由病毒或脂質體帶入的mRNA,沒有去到人體細胞的核仁nucleolus去改變什麼,mRNA也不能做什麼轉為DNA融入基因組。

 

接種了還會得病嗎?得過還需要接種嗎?

絕對有可能被感染!不要把疫苗當百毒不侵的仙丹!目前即使是最高功效的疫苗,也只能抑制百分之95的病例,這也意味著還有百分之五還有機會被感染。而檢測是否被感染是用RT-PCR來鑒定。

但被感染不代表會發病或得病,那是接下來的另一個層次了。目前的疫苗研究蠻鞏固的證據是,疫苗可讓接種者避免嚴重疾病和死亡,這也間中幫忙政府舒緩醫療資源和服務上的壓力。

目前根據政府的指南,他們還在研究康復者的免疫能力,暫時沒有排除康復者接種疫苗,但如果政府決定讓其他群體優先接種,我覺得也有道理。一般上,我們有理由相信康復者已有對病毒的抗體和免疫力,但這不意味著他們一定已擁有足夠的免疫力。因此,康復者請靜待下一步指示。

 

疫苗的保護可以持續多久?

這個目前沒有人能說準,因為大部分人包括臨床試驗者的疫苗接種時期還蠻近期。我看到比較新的研究數據已顯示mRNA型的兩劑疫苗在4個月後還能偵察到足夠的免疫保護水平。

根據世界衛生組織對疫苗的最基本要求是能有至少半年的保護期,我認為那還是不太理想的,最好是能持續至少一年或以上。無論如何,往後若病毒變種,而疫苗保護相應下降的話,或許可能需要定期再打疫苗加強劑,直到新冠肺炎受到全面控制,瘟疫不再大流行。

 

如果病毒變種,之前已打的疫苗還有效嗎?

如今媒體消息已報道南非和巴西變種病毒帶給當地的疫苗臨床試驗相當大的衝擊,這個確實是一大隱憂,因為病毒突變的部位是疫苗主要炮火攻擊的部分。近期看到的一些科學試驗結果顯示,目前市面上的疫苗產生的免疫反應,面對新的變種病毒,抗毒的效果有減弱,但不至於完全失效。所以,如果你已接種了疫苗,暫時不用擔心它無效和無力抗毒。但如果病毒繼續突變基因變種,適者生存而變更強大的話,我們就得要擔心。也許日後或像防疫年度流行病感冒這樣,得定期注射疫苗加強劑更新最新病毒辨識版本,才能達到最佳抗毒效果。







𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐕𝐬 𝐌𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐬: 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝-𝟏𝟗 𝐕𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐀𝐥𝐥

 I was invited to the session organised by Charles Santiago, MP for Klang on 5th March, to present in Mandarin.


𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐕𝐬 𝐌𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐬: 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝-𝟏𝟗 𝐕𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐀𝐥𝐥

(Bilingual - English & Mandarin)
As the national vaccination program is set to roll out soon for the public. This webinar will focus on
1. Rebuttal to the vaccine conspiracies
2. How the vaccine works.
3. Importance of having vaccine (from a health and economic perspective)
4. Ways to register for vaccination


The video link is as below:
https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?v=342811233705640&ref=watch_permalink

Chinese news report 光明日报报道

林志翰:民眾收錯訊息缺信心 中俄都有公佈疫苗數據


(巴生6日訊)感染生物學博士林志翰指出,大多數的民眾認為中國或俄羅斯研發的疫苗沒有公開數據,因而對這兩國的疫苗缺乏信心,他指這些訊息都是錯誤的。

他說,只要閱讀相關科研報告,就可獲知中、俄都有公佈數據,如俄國的“Sputnik V”就達到91.6%有效性。

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“中國北京科興生物(Sinovac)疫苗甚至還對年長者研究,報告顯示年長者接種第二劑疫苗後反應皆良好。”

林志翰是昨晚在線上中英論壇《事實VS陰謀:全民接種冠病疫苗》如此指出。該活動是由巴生國會議員查爾斯主催,林志翰和大馬國家癌症協會(NCSM)總監慕拉力達蘭醫生受邀主講。

他說,年長者都被鼓勵接種“Sinovac”疫苗,因為滅活病毒對年長者的刺激反應及副作用較低。

他說,除了這兩種疫苗,我國所購買的包括美國的輝瑞(Pfizer)、英國的阿斯利康(Astrazemeca)及中國的康希諾生物(CanSino)疫苗。

“每個疫苗都使用不同的方式產生保護作用,如滅活病毒、腺病毒及信使核糖核酸,我國所購的疫苗都需要注射兩劑,僅CanSino疫苗除外。”

“一般上接種第一劑後會出現較少反應,而第二劑會有較明顯的副作用反應但不會太嚴重,這些都證明這疫苗是有效的。民眾勿太擔心。”

疫苗需時產抗體接種後勿掉以輕心

林志翰還指出,迄今沒有任何疫苗可達到100%的有效性,即使接種了還不能掉以輕心,尤其是疫苗需要時間產生抗體。

他說,疫苗的保護作用主要是免於感染,若不幸被感染症狀也僅輕微,但也有可能被感染後不慎傳染給他人,所以希望更多人都接種。

“要達到群體免疫就需更多人接種,疫苗覆蓋率高就能保護那些無法接種的群體。”

他說,根據美國對1.5萬人的實驗報告顯示,沒有人會因注射後因疫苗而死亡。

慕拉力達蘭醫生指出,衛生部鑑定孕婦無法接種疫苗,主要是因為臨床試驗沒有孕婦參與,缺乏相關數據。








Tuesday, March 02, 2021

愛FM《名師早點》點評:疫苗護照可不可行? (2/3/2021)

 名師早點,多知一點。大家好,我是志翰,群議社政策研究員。今天要和大家談談疫苗護照是不是一個好主意?

大家是不是看到疫苗已抵達我國,上週三首相慕尤丁公開打了疫苗接種後,感到興奮無比去mysejahtera登記,希望自己盡快可以注射疫苗?然後你再看到近來的全國疫情開始好轉,單日新增病例持續往下滑,全球各國尤其是發達國家已開始接種疫苗、全球疫情也好轉,你就萌生這個念頭,心想:“嗯,等到我打了疫苗後,我要去紐西蘭旅遊3個月!什麼,有了疫苗護照,我就可以不用做篩檢更不需要來回都隔離10天?天吶,真是個好主意!那我也去順便去香港台灣玩吧!”

且慢!首先,政府和國際之間對於這個政策還未有定案。世界衛生組織,直至今年115日他們依然對疫苗護照持反對立場。發言人說目前對疫苗減少病毒傳染的有效性還有太多基礎上的不確定,同時疫苗生產和存貨依然有限。世衛組織也說疫苗接種證明不該等同於國家應該豁免其他的防疫措施。

大家應該比較熟悉瑞輝的疫苗據說功效有達百分之95,很多人讚不絕口,覺得太厲害了,是吧?可是大家忘了還有5%的疫苗接種人依然會受感染啊!那麼其他功效較低的疫苗,怎麼辦?目前的數據還未能證實這些受感染的人是否還會傳染給其他人,說明我們還有很多的未知數。

要知道,疫苗護照的主要假設是疫苗接種者不會染病或帶病到其他國家的當地社區,因此該國才會同意和放心這人不需要隔離直接自由入境。當然有些國家還會擔心是否疫苗護照有造假或該人有沒有足夠的免疫反應比如說抗體水平,所以可能他們同時也會作抗體篩檢。

那麼疫苗護照的假設有問題嗎?從公共衛生和防疫的角度來看,疫苗護照最多可成為一個醫藥認證參考,而不可以是萬能風雨無阻的通行證。要知道,疫苗不是仙丹,即使是5%的機率疫苗失效,20人裡面就有一人了,各國政府防疫邊防怎可以那麼有信心都讓疫苗護照持有人直接通過?

再來就是明顯地差別待遇,沒打疫苗的人將受到不公平的歧視和排擠。我相信,不是每個人都有機會接種疫苗。如果那些因為個人身體狀況被勸告先不能打疫苗,那麼他就沒疫苗護照。因此他可能平白被‘懲罰’來回隔離失去了20天人身自由,同時需要花上一大筆費用在隔離膳宿,這樣公平嗎?

更不好說,一些發達國家正如火如荼落實疫苗接種計劃的同時,很多發展中國家和貧窮國家甚至一針疫苗都還沒收到,遑論那本護照。況且,現階段他們拿不到疫苗也不是他們國家的錯。所以,提議疫苗護照的人或許應設想這世界的疫苗資源是否公平分配,同時應該讓這護照繼續排擠和邊緣化缺乏疫苗的國家和人民嗎?我們也要擔心萬一一些國家有國際政治議程,通過疫苗護照政策在許可名單上排擠一些疫苗產品,那麼一些國人縱使已疫苗接種了,但仍不受一些國家承認,怎麼辦?

無論如何,直到疫苗長期的保護效用已確定,政府應該三思“疫苗護照”政策,不好貪圖一時的經濟和商業來往的好處而妥協了過去有效的防疫措施。現在政府更應專注在疫苗接種計劃和加強防疫措施把疫情曲線拉下。

謝謝!

 

 

 


全球戰疫成敗,端視資源公平分配

目前全球疫苗需求極高,遠超過現有少數製造廠的生產與供應能力,「疫苗國家主義」加劇了世界不平等。我們不應任由市場力量壟斷,左右至關重要的醫療用品供應,反之須確保貨源不絕,價格可負擔。如今是時候促請我國政府在世貿會議無條件支持「豁免提案」。既然我國想要在一年內完成疫苗接種,支持提案無疑是保障國民福祉的正確決定,全球人口也將受惠,何樂不為?


【文/林志翰】

首批大約31萬劑輝瑞(Pfizer)新冠疫苗,終於在2月21日運抵我國,大好消息振奮人心,舉國上下異常關注。對疫情下疲困受苦的國人而言,或許是終結疫情的希望。接種計劃於2月26日分階段啟動,首相慕尤丁和衛生總監諾希山率先施打首劑。這項計劃的挑戰才剛開始,頗有雄心地策劃為超過八成或2600萬的馬來西亞人口在一年內完成接種。不過,除了康希諾生物公司(CanSino Bio)的單劑疫苗外,政府預訂的其他疫苗都需注射兩劑,目前首批來貨僅足以應付0.6%所需劑量。

這個世界是不公平的,疫情下更甚。超過半數以色列人口已在2月24日接種疫苗至少一劑,馬來西亞才開始了第一劑。截至2月20日,全球共有接近2億劑疫苗,在87個國家至少接種注射第一劑,同一時間,我國的訂貨仍未送達。

以目前全球疫苗接種速度,四分之三的世界人口預計至少需等三至五年才完成接種兩劑。低收入國家首當其衝,相信會被遠遠拋在後頭。疫情加劇貧富懸殊,全球經濟因供應鏈中斷、行動限制而大受打擊,預計損失高達9.2兆億美元。如果繼續坐視窮國長期缺乏疫苗,那麼發達國家也須肩負一半的沉重代價。

富國廣積疫苗加劇全球不公

目前全球疫苗需求極高,遠超過現有少數製造廠的生產與供應能力,「疫苗國家主義」加劇了世界不平等。疫苗採購合約地圖(World Map of Vaccine Contracts)顯示,一小撮富裕國家已訂走全球大部份疫苗,超過國內使用量需求多倍(如英國3.4倍、加拿大3.35倍、歐盟2.3倍)。截至2月12日下單預訂的95.9億劑量,倘能平均分配,就足以涵蓋全球一半人口。疫苗國家主義加上有限的生產能力,造成人為的稀缺(artificial scarcity),阻擾各國公平分配疫苗資源。

不止疫苗短缺,一些國家也難以獲得足夠的抗疫醫療用品,如個人防護裝備、檢測試劑、醫藥、呼吸機等醫療儀器。人為稀缺、高需求量令物品導向高獲利,低收入國家往往無法負擔重要醫療產品,或所購數量不敷。

全球公衛緊急狀態下,短期內如何讓世界各地的合格廠商提高新冠醫療用品產量?知識產權如專利權、商業機密、工業設計和版權,被視為主要障礙。不少跨國企業既不公開授權,亦無意願向製造商轉移科技。即使自願授權(voluntary licence),一般上都制定對本身有利條件給指定夥伴,控制後者的供應去向、售價標定。疫情初期,美國藥廠吉利德科學(Gilead Sciences,下圖)已立下惡例:摒除接近世界一半人口(包括馬來西亞),不讓這些國家從替代供應商以更低價獲取抗病毒藥物「瑞德西韋」(remdesivir,因缺乏藥效,現已遭世衛組織除名)。不乏可靠證據顯示,知識產權確為醫療用品及時普及化的一大障礙。

專利權障礙導致醫藥產品短缺,馬來西亞處境相當不妙。從2003年至2018年,國人擁有的專利權,僅佔所有政府批准的藥品相關專利領域區區4%。美國、瑞士、德國、日本、法國、英國、比利時、瑞典、意大利和韓國,這十大國家的企業機構掌握我國近八成的藥品專利。過去五年(2016-2020)所有進口藥品當中,上述十國就佔了56.1%,產品總值228億令吉,不啻突顯我國高度依賴進口醫療產品。藥品工業的貿易赤字也逐年增加,去年更達10.6億令吉。反之比較2019年,去年藥品進口總值額明顯下降18.6%。如今全球貨源短缺導致供應鏈中斷、高需求量,或都與疫情有關。

為此,南非和印度向世貿組織(WTO)底下的「與貿易有關的知識產權協定」(Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights,TRIPS)理事會提呈一項議案,要求成員國在全球冠病大流行期間,對冠病產品和科技,豁免落實、執行和應用與知識產權相關義務。在這之前,TRIPS協定力求所有世貿成員國,若符合標準和條件,需予相關產品(包括醫療用品)二十年專利壟斷權。

提案籲棄疫苗開發主權控制

這項「豁免提案」如今已獲近百個成員國支持,讓政府在免於高昂訴訟威脅下,提高醫療用品產量,加強合作研發,允許科技轉移,以及自由獲取其他製造商的相關產品貨源。同時,這提案將有助於加快法律確定性和明確度,尤其是讓發展中國家製造商得以提高投資生產,確保醫療產品供應充足。

眼看全球未能公平分配抗疫資源,一些國家開始覺悟,依賴醫藥企業施捨和有限的自願授權行為並非解決良方。越來越多國家表態支持豁免提案,共同提案國家(co-sponsors)如今已包括整個非洲大陸眾國和其他發展中國家。毫無意外的,反對提案者主要來自美國、英國、日本、歐盟和瑞士等專利擁有國。

單從染病和死亡人數來看,這場冠病瘟疫幾乎波及全球人口各個層面,對現代人類社會的挑戰程度之大史無前例。因此,我們不應任由市場力量壟斷,左右至關重要的醫療用品供應,反之須確保貨源不絕,價格可負擔。其實,不少企業曾經接受公共機構的巨額資助,投入新冠肺炎研究。政府、前線醫療工作人員、病患和志工,紛紛貢獻血汗勞力,協助臨床科學實驗。這些努力推進了知識創造,加強藥物疫苗研發。因此,要求在疫情期間停止履行相關知識產權協議義務,合情合理。

反對豁免提案者或許會說,目前TRIPS協定的伸縮性條約,包括政府頒發強制許可證(compulsory licence),足以應付疫情。但那不是通盤的解決方式,無法讓政府迅速因應全球公衛緊急狀態,及時控制疫情。

如今是時候促請我國政府在世貿會議無條件支持「豁免提案」。既然我國想要在一年內完成疫苗接種,支持提案無疑是保障國民福祉的正確決定,全球人口也將受惠,何樂不為?

刊登于《當代評論》2021年3月1日