Sunday, August 29, 2021

5 crucial points on the PN govt's health performance

Short speech prelude:

17 months of PN govt on health performance, many would judge significantly on the pandemic control outcomes. If we take the final outcome as when they left the office, the public perception is most probably not good. In fact, whether the assessment claim is true or not, certainly their pandemic control policies and measures were largely criticised and these are made good excuses or reasons to pressure their exit. Their first and early successes before the third wave of pandemic were already in the distant past, many would argue the credits may not pass entirely or largely to the political leadership but the competent health department civil servants.

Yes, political leadership is problematic, because during the pandemic, health ministry is probably the most important portfolio in the government, but the person held the minister position is Dr Adham Baba. People yearn for leadership to get them out of this mess of double jeopardy in public health and economic, but the health ministry seems to keep afloat and autopilot by the civil servants under the leadership of Director General Dr Noor Hisham. The latter even was made the national hero and superstar in early days of COVID-19 pandemic. This shouldn’t happen if the health minister were competent enough. One even can have doubt about Dr Adham Baba, how effective he could articulate and defend the MOH positions in the cabinet and the MKN meetings? MOSTI minister Khairy Jamaluddin is the complete opposite to Dr Adham Baba, he shows what a competent and effective leader can make the difference and impact. He ran the National COVID-19 immunisation programme so well until no one among the general public knows who is DG or KSU in his ministry.

One thing is about fighting the covid-19, another is to deal with non-covid health issues. Since the beginning of the pandemic, many among the public start to appreciate the importance of health policies. Many health advocate groups, opposition members and even DG himself called for strengthening public health, by allocating more resources for the health ministry. In the end, Budget 2021 was a big disappointment, because it failed to show the political will and strong intent from the government investing in public health. MOH operating budget was cut, allocation for services and supplies for the ministry were also slashed, even the budget for the Public Health department was also shrunk by 12%. They would do themselves a lot of good deeds and save troubles if they had allocated significantly more for creating many more permanent positions in the Medical department, this was the prelude to the Code Black and Hartal Doktor Kontrak movements.

Although the housemanship and contract doctor issue have a long history passing through many governments including Pakatan Harapan, they may also be complicated. What the Prime Minister offered to the contract doctors prior to their nationwide strike was just another temporary stop gap measure. Only when push comes to shove, then the government responded, before that they seemed to be just sitting on the issue.

Vaccination is traditionally a health matter implemented by the MOH, but on COVID-19 vaccination, it becomes joint-effort, perhaps under the leadership of the PICK coordinating minister Khairy, it is the only exemplary health performance under the PN government. But even that, home ministry often sabotage by initiating campaigns to arrest undocumented migrants. This complicates the pandemic control measures, including getting them to be vaccinated.

In short, under the eventful 17 months under the PN govt, their political leadership in the MOH is shambolic and, some argue, almost non-existence. The then Prime Minister Muhyiddin even had to appoint a special advisor on public health in Dr Jemilah Mahmood to show the internal deficit. 


5 crucial points on the PN govt's health performance



  1. Incompetent and doubtful political leadership in health matters

 

PN government had selected Dr Adham Baba as the health minister, and stuck with him throughout the 17 months in governance. Despite being a medical doctor listed in the Medical Register, Dr Adham Baba’s deficiencies in ability to comprehend many complex issues, make good judgement as well as take timely and appropriate actions to remedy the situations and solve surging number of problems emerged due to the pandemic, are too obvious for the whole nation to see. His public unscripted appearance and speech delivery at times were disastrous and left him being a laughing stock for the nation. This is not helpful when the nation needs a capable and convincing leader to lead the people out of the pandemic, while his personal qualities were questioned and his reputation had been taken enormous hits. The people are not sure what were his contributions in the health ministry and how effectively he defended the MOH positions in the MKN and cabinet. The health ministry seemed kept afloat simply by the excellent support and deliveries from the competent civil servants. 

 

The public shifted their attention and yearned for leadership, giving rise to the stardom profile of Director General of Health, Dr Noor Hisham. This should not happen if the health minister were competent enough to handle the communications and deliveries in terms of health policies and measures. The NIP Coordinating minister Khairy Jamaluddin is the total opposite case to Dr Adham Baba, he is a prime example showing how much difference and impact a competent and effective leader can make.



2.              Failure to contain the pandemic due to political and external interest interference and not based on prevailing evidence

 

2 critical mistakes at the early third wave of pandemic paved the way for the subsequent  failures to suppress the COVID-19 disease transmission in 2021: i) Slow response in closing the Sabah state borders during the early outbreak of the third wave pandemic. The outbreak was exacerbated by the Sabah state election campaigns, which was unnecessary if not for the political actions by certain leaders to grab power via  defections. ii) Premature reopening of all state borders in early December, just when the pandemic situation was in control and improving. This intervention decided at the MKN resulted in widespread seeding of the virus throughout the country and caused the high peak in February. As a consequence, the viral load in the local communities became so high until it became entrenched as endemic, this sets the prelude to the series of subsequent failures of the disease containment strategies. MITI’s allowance for many firms and factories to continue operating as ‘essential services’ during the FMCO period helped sustain the disease transmission at the localities.


3.              Failed in investing more in public health under the Budget 2021

 

Despite the repeated calls by the health advocate groups, political parties and even the DG Health to increase the financial resources for the MOH, Budget 2021 was a disappointment. The MOH operating budget was reduced by about RM718 million, particularly the allocation for services and supplies was shrunk by RM1.3 billion. The government significantly cut back the budget on the Public Health overall programme by 12%, this is not a good message of intent to show that the government wants to strengthen public health, even though it is true that the government had allocated a lot more in a separate pool of funding only for COVID-19 pandemic.



4.              Temporary but unconvincing solutions for the contract doctors

 

To be fair, the housemanship & contract doctor issue has been a long standing issue, dated back to more than 10 years ago. Moratorium on new medical schools and programmes first imposed in 2011, pushed more desperate students to seek opportunities in overseas medical institutions, and they came back wanting to serve.

 

The contract system adopted in 2016, only served as a delay tactic to overcome the Public Services Department (JPA) bottleneck for appointing house officers as well as medical officers to the permanent civil servant positions. But the subsequent governments did not have the political will to significantly increase the number of positions to absorb the contract doctors. 

 

On the Hartal Doktor Kontrak movement, the then Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin finally responded on 23 July 2021 by offering another temporary stop gap measure with a 2 year contract to those who had completed mandatory service (or 4 years if accepted for specialist studies), as well as upgrading the contract benefits. He promised to fix the system. 

 

Although the systemic issue is complicated and hardly one can expect the government with such a short tenure to solve it, the government did not seem to deal much on the issue but only when push comes to shove (CodeBlack and Hartal Doktor Kontrak movement).



5.              Effective vaccine rollout campaign, held back by obsession to arrest undocumented migrants

 

The rapid pace of vaccine rollout under the National COVID-19 Immunisation Programme after June 2021 is one of the best performing acts and effective policy implementation by the PN government. The inclusiveness of the vaccination campaign (eg. multilingual official website, vaccination plan to include migrant workers and undocumented migrants, invited opposition lawmaker to be one of the coordinating officers), effective and clear public communication (eg. regular press conferences, statements, and public talk appearances), willingness to share more data in public, and spot-on strategic decision (eg. allowing the public to go for an opt-in option for AZ vaccine when the initial doubt raised about the vaccine) -- all these exemplary records  boosted public confidence in registering and getting the vaccine. The vaccine rollout rate during Jun-Aug saw Malaysia being one of the fastest immunised nations in the world, and it could have already protected many people from COVID-19 harm if only the pandemic were less severe.

 

However, the Home Ministry had a different idea. They were adamant in arresting undocumented migrants under the disguise of protecting the citizens from infection. Human rights aside, even if it were just about public health, that was obviously a wrong approach. These gave rise to multiple clusters in the immigration detention centres with a high number of positive cases. The policy also causes many undocumented migrants went hiding for the fear of arrest. This complicates the COVID-19 pandemic control management and interventions, and helps sustain a certain viral burden in some unreachable communities which were forced to hide.

馬新社華語新聞訪問(8月27日):依斯迈内阁

題:依斯迈内阁变动小学问大 巫统重掌选举战略职务

簡介:外界普遍认为,新一轮的排兵布阵,换汤不换药。不过,分析认为,依斯迈组阁变动虽小,但实则内有玄机。特别是对来届大选备战,有着重要功能的政府部门都重新回到了巫统的手中,就是一大亮点。

***

有人嘲笑說,到底這個內閣是新的舊內閣,還是舊的新內閣?差不多就是舊瓶裝新酒的意思。

早前說要減少臃腫的內閣成員人數,事實上現在連人數都幾乎一樣,31部長38副部長,比慕尤丁內閣少了一位部長而已。
31個部長職裡,只有5位新臉孔,10位大風吹對換部門的舊人,而且重要的部門如財政部、內政部、教育部部長還是同樣的人。所以,如果要說這是國盟政府2.0,應該沒有人有異議。那麼也就是說早前各派要向慕尤丁政府逼宮並不是要換政府,而只是內部權力洗牌,巫統要重新掌握最高權力和這聯盟的話事權。
坦白說,內閣安排其實就是權力分配的安排,用來滿足執政聯盟各黨的勢力,不一定是選賢與能。即使有,也通常在政黨被分配的部門範圍內調整。比如說,大家矚目的衛生部和科技工藝革新部早期皆由巫統掌握,所以部長對調也就比較容易。
***
財政部長依然由東姑扎夫魯繼續領導,這個有點讓人意外,因為巫統內部早前都對他有眾多不滿。但看在他是無黨派的身份,而且財政部掌握極大的權力,甚至比副首相更重要,無論分配給巫統、土團黨、甚至是伊斯蘭黨都會引起爭議和不滿,相信這會是其中的考量。
鄉村發展部、多媒體通訊部和房屋和地方政府部重回巫統不會感到意外,因為這是傳統上對選舉宣傳最具有戰略性的部門。相信在未來大選這改變會進一步對土團黨不利。
與環境保護相關的部門目前都在伊斯蘭黨的手上,對環保和綠色運動會是什麼影響?他們目前執政的吉蘭丹州環境問題重重。至少他們歡喜奪得了屬意的宗教事務部長一職。
疫情仍嚴重的時候,依斯邁推舉了上界內閣表現最優異的凱里來接任衛生部長,這是一個明智之舉。相信選民對依斯邁政府的表現評價如何,抗疫防疫表現肯定是一個關鍵指標,必須由最有能力的政治人物來把關才能重振人民的信心。而這個部長不一定需要有醫生資格。依斯邁也給了黨同志阿漢峇峇一個體面的下台階與凱里的部門對換。
馬華和國大黨的部長副部長位子沒什麼變動,除了鄭聯科上議員轉為青體部副部長,而土團黨前霹靂州州務大臣Ahmad Faizal則獲得關照正式坐上青體部部長。
***
當初慕尤丁政府的內閣也沒設下副首相職,為了權衡國盟政府內部成員黨之間的勢力。後來增設副首相一職給依斯邁,因為來自巫統挑戰派的壓力。
現在沒有副首相一職,但依然保持國盟政府1.0高級部長的權力分配:兩位土團黨,一位巫統和一位砂拉越政黨聯盟。副首相一職雖然是虛職沒什麼實權,但普遍上有著第二把交椅未來首相繼承人的意味。依斯邁無需現在就在這問題上給自己增添煩惱,另一方面目前他也沒遇到政治壓力,增添副首相一職反而會破壞目前的聯盟權力分配。
***
這個政府不會維持太久,畢竟任期也接近必須重選的尾聲,再加上這是一個以微差多數執政的政黨聯盟,只要4個議員宣佈撤回支持,這個政府又沒有多數了。目前角色對調,土團黨甚至是其他盟黨若要如法炮製發動攻勢威脅或勒索政府滿足他們的要求,這個未必不會發生。估計未來政局依然不太穩定,若有機會巫統還是希望能提早解散國會重新選舉為上,所以內閣部門位子也調整了以應付不久將來的挑戰。



慕尤丁政府公衛施政體檢

 慕尤丁任內敗筆之一,就是委任無能的阿漢峇峇當衛生部長,影響民衆對公共衛生和抗疫的信心。如今依斯邁沙比里將凱里調任衛長是明智之舉。顯然他了解到新政府的首要防疫工作,是委任一位具領導力、處事果斷的衛生部長重拾民心。雖然凱里不具有醫生資格,但過去好幾任衛生部長也沒有,這並非出任衛長的條件,首相也不一定非要捨政治人物取無黨派專業精英不可。新衛長是時候展示政治意志,提升公衛醫療系統,解决目前嚴峻的疫情挑戰。


【文/林志翰】

依斯邁沙比里(Ismail Sabri Yaakob)在本月廿一日宣誓成為第九任首相後,馬來西亞由一個新舊參差的政府統領。坊間稱這個由巫統領導的政府為國盟2.0,對掌權的巫統來說,則傾向於自認國陣政府。前首相慕尤丁(Muhyiddin Yassin)任內敗筆之一,就是委任無能的阿漢峇峇(Adham Baba)當衛生部長,影響民衆對公共衛生和抗疫的信心。如今新政府繼續面臨嚴重疫情、振興經濟兩大挑戰,衛生部的表現至爲關鍵。本文主要評述慕尤丁政府五項公衛政策表現。

一、公衛領導無能備受質疑:慕尤丁執政十七個月期間,堅持把阿漢峇峇留在內閣。儘管後者為合格注册醫生,但抗疫能力闕如,判斷欠佳,卻屢次失言口誤,無論「溫水消除冠病」、「與五百個國家視訊會議」、「西班牙蒼蠅」,皆成國人笑柄。當國家需要有勇有謀的部長領導抗疫時,沒有人知曉阿漢峇峇的貢獻,更不清楚他如何在國家安全理事會和內閣捍衛部門政策。衛生部似乎僅能依靠出色的公務體系支援其運作。抗疫領導心切,民衆關注點投射到衛生總監諾希山(Noor Hisham Abdullah)身上,造就抗疫初期的「救星」形象。如果衛生部長有能力貫徹政策措施、擅長溝通,這本來就不該發生。負責協調「全國新冠疫苗接種計劃」的科技部長凱里(Khairy Jamaluddin)則與阿漢峇峇恰好相反,他的表現說明一位有能力的領袖可以帶來影響和改變。

二、政治利益淩駕防疫考量:去年第三波疫情出現,兩項决策失誤導致往後抗疫全盤皆落索,難以阻斷蔓延。首先,沙巴爆發第三波疫情之際,未果斷及時封鎖州邊界。連慕尤丁也承認,沙巴州選是觸發疫情的主要根源。若非該州政治人物跳槽策動奪權,州選並無必要。再者,疫情稍獲控制後,同年十二月國安會過早開放邊境跨州,這項决定導致病毒進一步擴散全國,今年二月出現疫情高峰。社區傳播的病毒負擔過高,已成為地方流行病(endemic)。後來一系列抗疫措施失敗,這是也是爲何即使全面封鎖,某些州屬確診病例非但未顯著下降反而攀升。令人詬病的是,貿工部核准太多公司、工廠在全面封鎖期間繼續運作,不少人流戶外互動易受感染,令社區傳播揮散不去。

三、新財案未挹注公衛部門:儘管政黨、醫療相關非政府組織甚至衛生總監本身,多次呼籲增加衛生部撥款增強公衛,二〇二一年財政預算令人失望。該部門營運預算卻减少了七億兩千萬令吉,特別是「服務與供應」項目被削減十三億令吉。削減12%的公衛部門預算,顯示政府未有改善公共衛生的意願。難道撥出大筆專款抗疫,就算為公衛盡力了?

四、合約醫生爭取平等待遇:合約制醫療人員和實習生的不平等待遇由來已久。二〇一一年當局禁止增設醫學院開辦新醫科課程,間接促使許多人出國一圓醫生夢,畢業後回國服務。二〇一六年合約聘用制出爐,政府繞過公共服務局的公務員錄取限制聘用醫生,緩解醫學系畢業生漫長等待錄取問題,不過是權宜之計。公務員長期職位有限,這麽做只是把問題挪後到合格醫生的合約,接下來幾任政府(包括希盟)都沒有增加職缺吸納他們。

直到合約醫生醞釀罷工,慕尤丁遲至七月廿六日才承諾解決問題,端出臨時應急措施,同意爲完成義務服務者(mandatory service)延長合約長達兩年(錄取專科醫生訓練者四年),提升合約福利。雖然這課題有其複雜層面,要求一個任期短暫的政府徹底解决或許不切實際,但當局似乎未積極處理,直至「黑色星期一」穿黑衣上班(Code Black)、集體罷工運動(Hartal Doktor Kontrak)後才被動回應。

五、逮無證移工難補防疫缺口:全國新冠疫苗接種計劃今年六月迅速推行,最高峰每天為接近2%人口接種。這也許是國盟政府執行最有效的政策。疫苗接種過程展現多元包容(如設立多語網站、接種對象包括有證或無證移工、邀請在野黨議員任協調員),公共溝通暢達透明(例常記者會、文告聲明、部長參與公共論壇、公開各種疫情數據),決策果斷(阿斯利康疫苗受質疑時,及時開放民眾自願登記),這些做法無不提升了民衆接種疫苗的信心。我國從六月到八月是全球接種最快的國家之一。倘若疫情不致這般嚴重,疫苗本可保護更多人免於傷亡。

內政部以防疫為由執意逮捕無證移工。就算不談人權,只談公共衛生,明顯是錯誤做法,至今造成超過一百一十五個扣留所出現感染群。很多無證移工藏匿躲避逮捕,特別是某些早有一定疾病負擔的社區,將曝露防疫措施的疏漏,增添了阻斷感染鏈的難度。

本月廿七日內閣名單公佈,依斯邁沙比里將凱里調任衛生部長是明智之舉。顯然他了解到新政府的首要防疫工作,是委任一位具領導力、處事果斷的衛生部長重拾民心。雖然凱里不具有醫生資格,但過去好幾任衛生部長也沒有,這並非出任衛長的條件,首相也不一定非要捨政治人物取無黨派專業精英不可。新衛生部長是時候展示政治意志,大力提升公衛醫療系統,解决目前嚴峻的疫情挑戰。

刊登于《當代評論》2021年8月28日
原文鏈接:http://contemporary-review.com.my/2021/08/28/1-389

Saturday, August 21, 2021

CityPlus FM interview: 【下班有话题】新政府上台之後,防疫措施如何管理?(19 Aug 2021)

前天與CityPlusFM的舒敏和佩玲愉快地聊了這個衛生部長人選和接下來新政府抗疫防疫措施和策略的課題。
其中一個要點是有時公眾分不清衛生部長和衛生總監的職務和功能分別,常常混為一談。也說了,衛生部長是一個關鍵部門,必須由一個有能力的人勝任,而他未必需要有醫生資格(前衛生部長就是一個負面教材)。

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【下班有话题】新政府上台之後,防疫措施如何管理?

在新首相新内阁出来之前,国家元首苏丹阿都拉陛下已经谕令所有现行的政策,如抗疫计划、疫苗计划,以及国家复苏计划都须被保留。

这期节目邀请对公共卫生有所研究的群议社政策研究员 林志翰博士,来和我们聊聊,新政府是否可以从国盟政府的抗疫的经验中,汲取教训和做出改善?国内的防疫措施要继续由政治领袖来主导还是医疗官员?





























Podcast鏈接:

https://cityplusfm.my/%E3%80%90%E4%B8%8B%E7%8F%AD%E6%9C%89%E8%AF%9D%E9%A2%98%E3%80%91%E6%96%B0%E6%94%BF%E5%BA%9C%E4%B8%8A%E5%8F%B0%E4%B9%8B%E5%BE%8C%EF%BC%8C%E9%98%B2%E7%96%AB%E6%8E%AA%E6%96%BD%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E7%AE%A1/

988《時事一百度》2021年8月20日點評

 






1)第9任首相及接下來政局发展

首相人选已确定了是依斯迈沙比里了吗?不会再有变数?
依斯迈已有一组号码,那就是114,那已经是国会多数了,还不能做首相吗?
会不会有变数呢?114只是比111简单多数多了3席而已,换句话说,只要四位或以上过档过去,大家又白忙一场,被兜着转了 -- 那时就要看适不适合举行选举解开这僵局。
变数有吗?有,如果需要,慕尤丁的土团党也可以如法炮制阿末扎希威逼政府对土团党的要求就范。砂拉越的政治聯盟GPS也一樣。昨天慕尤丁就开了条件说新政府必须委任没有官司弊案缠身的政治人物当部长;再来就是阿末扎希是否满意依斯迈的表现--如果他们已有协议,是否依斯迈会遵守承诺落实阿末扎希支持他任相的条件?阿末扎希当然也可以再号召换马但不倒政府,虽然道德难度高很多。
所以,我的基本估计是,依斯迈不太可能是个强势有力的首相,他会有太多势力和因素牵制着他。更多时候他代表的是一个众多政党议员的折衷人选,直到下一届选举。要在位多久,就要看他的政治智慧。
为何会是他?这次的倒慕行动,严格来说,算不算换政府?还是只是内部的权力洗牌?
为何是依斯迈?简单来说,因为他来自巫统,他是前个国盟政府官职最高的巫统领袖。
可是这次的倒慕行动,很多在野党支持者相当乐见其成,以为慕尤丁倒了,安华和希盟就有机会翻转执政,国家各大问题就有救了。不好意思说,这是一厢情愿,而不是根据政治逻辑脉络和各党要员的角色影响和动机来作分析。
首先,是谁先发动倒慕行动?阿末扎希。他是谁?巫统主席。他要换政府吗?不,巫统已是政府,但没有做老大。他自己要做老大吗?他很想,但他因官司丑闻缠身,很难。他先要巫统做回老大,不再屈居叛徒土团党。那么他有可能带领整体的巫统议员过去与希盟结盟换政府然后做老大吗?几乎不可能。
所以,如果你得看清楚這些关系,就该明白阿末扎希发动的政变议程志在拉下慕尤丁和土团党的领导,只是内部的权力洗牌,而不是真正要换政府。所以有人目前命名这个政府是国盟2.0,其实这也有一些道理,因为依斯迈一直处于国盟政府的权力中心,扶摇直上到副首相,目前问鼎首相宝座,照理也应该延续国盟的政策。

新的政府会稳定吗?阿末扎希会ok不再拉倒依斯迈了?快乐重回巫统了吗?闪电大选还会来吗?
刚才我已提了所谓的‘变数’ -- 114是微差多数执政,不是安华常挂在嘴边的一个“强大有力“”的支持数目。
经过这次成功的政变,阿末扎希身为最大执政党的主席更能发号施令牵制政府。阿末扎希肯定也有野心要当首相,因为在第14届大选之前的惯例都是巫统主席等于首相。但如果依斯迈依然有雄心在未来保住这首相位子,那么他们俩就要竞争了,最好的解决的地方就是党选。
可是阿末扎希已借口疫情把党选展延了18个月,这也意味着他掌握了下届大选候选人提名权,依斯迈也不能挑战他的主席位子,除非他继续慕尤丁的政策...叫社团注册局施压提早举行党选。如果是这样的话,我想,巫统里现在的快乐应该是短暂的。

土团党主帅慕尤丁被腰斩了后,虽然还可被分配到副首相一职,该党在未来还有希望和能力跟巫统竞争?还是会被重新整合收编?
副首相候选人是谁现在我们还不知道,但副首相位子其实是个鸡肋,好看但没实权,除非特别兼任其他部门如内政部等。
土团党拱手交出去了首相宝座后,以后就很难利用国家机关来关照和扶持这个基层依然薄弱的巫统分裂党。来届大选巫统有胜算,肯定也不会轻易饶过土团党这些叛徒,因此不太可能谈合作。若真的要在大选硬碰硬对上老牌政党巫统,土团党到底还有多少胜算?我认为,土团党有相当大的可能会在下届大选前就重回巫统,那么至少还有一些政治人物可以换巫统旗帜上阵,延续政治生命。

这次的倒慕行动和国盟巫统权斗,安华和希盟从中获得了什么?他们还有希望重新执政,还是最好专注在下届选举?
我觉得这次的权斗中,某个程度上安华可能已被阿末扎希利用来持续施压慕尤丁,以至慕尤丁‘借’不到部分的反对党支持票抵消阿末扎希派系巫统议员撤离的议席。
如果安华还要尝试拉拢其他的失意份子过档希盟来拉倒现在的政府,恐怕人民已对这样的戏码失去了兴趣,毕竟安华的“狼来了”太多次,没有诚信,就连最高元首也不想理睬。
安华唯有在国会的重要议案可以重创新政府,但去年他在财政预算案失败了。希盟若还想重新执政,就别再期望国盟或国阵会再掉馅饼——还不趁现在组织影子内阁,深入扮演替代政府的角色,包括认真研究和提出精辟政策展示执政愿景,准备迎战下届选举。若不这样做,那么我也就没什么话好说了。

2)一张选票換三任首相的得与失

人民会对政治不稳定的乱象感到不满,进而导致失望,不再相信选举民主了?
我国所谓的政治不稳定现象,源自于去年2月的喜来登行动,如今已延续一年半了。当时对选举民主的伤害是,集体跳槽者背叛和挟持原本的民意换了政府。之后,人民经历了一波又一波的疫情和经济双重打击,而朝野双方一直在权斗,不管是暗斗或明斗,内斗或外斗,人民好多生活在水深火热当中没空管政客这些权斗。同样的,热衷策划权斗的政客看起来也很忙,没空管人民,要不然就逢场作秀搞公关“关怀”人民。
就像评论人许国伟大哥常说的,我们投的选票换来的是戏票?因为国会里朝野两方也可以很儿戏,到底多少国会议员还很专业地执行他们的任务扮演他们的角色?是有的,但我们也看到很多议员并没有。

疫情严重期间,经济依然受困的当儿,政治人物继续认真搞权斗,在人民的眼里这意味着什么?
没有经过重大考验,比如说这次的疫情和经济两大考题,再加上政局的动荡,我们未必能看得出议员的能力和本色。一些政治人物的生活、价值观及言行举止居然可以与普通百姓那么脱节、差别那么大,让人傻眼。就连我平时不太评论政治的友人都看不过眼,会自嘲没法去巴黎或土耳其度假,也没有纽西兰亲人的邀约。
而这些政治人物和政党在竞选时的宣言和承诺?没有人再提及了,你最好也别再提及,因为“原则”这东西对于政客,是要看什么时候和什么场合才适合搬出来使用的。

这次的权力斗争以至慕尤丁辞职倒台,这过程当中人民和公民社会有扮演什么角色影响政局?
无可否认,自去年9月的第三波疫情开始,政府犯下了两次的关键性的决策失误,错过了最佳时机压下疫情曲线,埋下了今年抗疫不力的伏笔,因此被迫祭出多个不同严格程度的行管令导致经济危机和人民生计问题,民不聊生。来自民间的怨气很深,不难理解,同时他们都把矛头一股脑地指向最高领导人问责,那就是前首相慕尤丁,仿佛他就是所有问题和败笔的根源,一定要把他拉下马。
所以,除了在野党和国盟政府内的倒慕行动,人民也组织起来Lawan的街头抗议行动,一波又一波地施压,首先要求重开国会和解除紧急状态,后来就是施压慕尤丁辞职下台谢罪。
Lawan街头示威抗议和黑旗行动确实聚集了民间强烈不满。虽然最后慕尤丁的辞职并非为了谢罪,而是纯粹技术上他已失去国会多数支持而走投无路。人民和公民社会的举动展示的民意力量确实有催化作用,尝试树立领袖问责文化。

下届大选的结果有可能找到强大和稳定的执政联盟吗?
不能排除这可能性,最大的变数要看国盟国阵这里如何协商安排,到底是怎样的选举局面?是国盟国阵一方直接对垒希盟吗?还是多角战,国盟战国阵和希盟?或是伊斯兰党独立出来参选?另外,到时土团党还健在带领国盟吗?
目前可以预期的是国阵这方会胜利,除非现在巫统领导的政府犯下更多更大的失误。如果伊斯兰党和土团党没有拦路,有可能国阵会赢得相当舒服,砂拉越的GPS甚至可能回归国阵。但是,这样的稳定联盟未必是很多华裔希望看到的。希盟若要重新执政的话,就得下很多苦工特别是争取土著选票方面。

人民和公民社会,除了投票,还能做什么确保健康和稳定的政治文化?
不少人常常误会民主是5年一次投票的事。那是选举民主,但那不是民主的全部。日常生活中的政治参与,比如地方或社区的决策,乃至国家政策的讨论,在社交媒体发表看法关注课题,或参与公民社会组织的活动,这些都是参与式民主。我们要常监督和问责自家的国州议员,批评任何不当或不对的言论或行为,不能姑息龌龊的政治文化,比如贪腐,跳槽或yes man效忠党领袖行为。


3)塔利班迅速重夺阿富汗政权

怎么会发生?这跟美军撤退的时间表有关系吗?美国应该负责?
这绝对不是巧合。在某个程度上,美国撤军是一个关键因素。原本由前任总统特朗普定下的全面撤军时间表是今年5月,而拜登已展延至9月11日。这也是说,如今塔利班在这期限前已光复了整个阿富汗,包括首都喀布尔,而美国只好加速撤离保护自己人和为他们服务工作的阿富汗公民。
塔利班基本上早在2020年2月在多哈与美国政府达成了和平协议后,在美国宣布了撤军时间表,就开始部署重夺阿富汗领土。但是以一个美国和北约盟军扎营长达20年,军事训练当地士兵超过10年,然而政府军10天内迅速崩解,这个咋舌结果让人难以接受。
话说,美国特朗普和拜登总统的撤军决定是理性的,这也反映国内政治的主流声音和民意。自2001开战以来到今年4月,单单美军就折损了2442人,这些都是在美国有家人亲戚朋友的军人,每个伤亡都是社会的痛。
再来的一个惊心动魄的数据是,自开战以来在阿富汗军事运营,美国政府已耗费了2.26万亿美元(trillion US dollar)。(注:1 trillion有12个零)虽然美国是经济大国,这绝对是重大财务负担,而且还是无底洞,因为这是一个不能完胜的战争!即使现在撤军了,一些军人福利预算还是会得继续支付直到他们往生。

为何20年了,美国和盟军无法根除塔利班?美国失败了吗?
其实也不止是美国失败了,70-80年代的苏联也失败过。这是赢不了的战争,美国非常清楚。
武装冲突自2005以来不断升级特别是面对塔利班的自杀式袭击,最高点就在2011年的美国奥巴马总统时代派遣了最高峰10万美国士兵驻军进行战斗,唯一算达标的是在当年找到并杀死了宾拉登,美国911事件的祸首。然而在2014年12月,美国和北约盟军就决定结束战斗剿灭塔利班和其他境内武装分子的军事计划。
为何塔利班不能被根除?若有观察阿富汗这内陆国的地理环境就会发现这是一个高山林立地形险峻的国家,塔利班虽然离开了都市和政府直接管辖据点,他们并没有消失,只是躲进深山山洞里了,换了策略打游击战和自杀式袭击。再加上阿富汗边防松懈漏洞,轻易进出邻国,特别是巴基斯坦这个同时被不少恐怖组织渗透的国家。所以,地广人稀,敌人在暗匿藏又突击,美盟军和政府军防不胜防,非战之罪。

美国自2013年6月移交了武装安全工作给阿富汗政府军接管,对比塔利班,在军事表面数字上占尽优势,为何还是扶不起的阿斗迅速崩溃瓦解?
根据美国内部情报的预测,塔利班重夺政权将会在美国撤军半年内发生。但事实是,塔利班自八月初全面提升战事,只用了10天就拿下首都喀布尔了,对比半年,还是差太大了。
即使在美军撤退前的政府正规军据说有30万,而塔利班只有7万,再加上政府军拥有更强大的军备尤其是空军的协助,本来应该占上风,不然至少可以固守阵地。
但现实是,很多的战区的政府军军官自行投降、和平转交据点阵地,塔利班不费一兵一卒,子弹和血汗就收复失地。这现象还相当普遍发生,解释了为何政府军据点阵地迅速接连崩盘易手。
当中的原因包括军官贪腐、军备不足、甚至一些士兵已久未获得劳资,或缺乏足够军粮持久抗敌--结果可以想象他们士气低落,无心恋战。再加上政府军已难以增援、强大的美军和盟军已撤离,要打就只能孤身奋斗,反而最后输了会赔命被残杀;不打的话,塔利班只要领土、不伤人夺命。投降似乎是很多军官理性的选项,这解释了10天阿富汗政府失守的快速骨牌效应。

现在回锅的塔利班是否还是那个20年前落实伊斯兰教刑事法、压迫女性的极端塔利班?
2001年败走的塔利班武装份子,一些已匿藏在偏僻深山处,一些散落中东各地,包括不少落根在巴基斯坦新基地。有鉴于武装冲突不断升级,各方死伤人数不断增加,维持国内安全的经费也越来越高,美国也急于寻找新出路。
2012年,塔利班被获准在卡达尔多哈开设一个办事处,增加了美国与塔利班和平协议的可能性。但这个过程曲折,直到去年2020年2月才达成和平协议交换条件为美国撤军铺路,同时塔利班保证不会在境内包容恐怖组织。
塔利班的外交官变得务实和成熟了,明白不要再激怒西方强国引来军事行动这浅道理。但这所谓的和平协议没包括停火协议,无疑为塔利班壮胆部署重夺阿富汗政权的计划。
重点来了,塔利班声称依然会以伊斯兰教教法执政,这不在美国和谈的范畴。所以,我们不该感到太意外,如果他们会继续沿用2001年前,5年执政的那一套伊斯兰教刑事法。女性不能单独出街也不能上学,要全面包裹在罩袍Burqas里,女性权益立刻要亮红灯。城里也不可以有娱乐甚至不能播放音乐!
但塔利班拿下阿富汗各大城市之前,这些地方已有些不一样了,人民开始认识和习惯民主制度和权益,妇女享有一些自由等。阿富汗东部小城市就有人示威抗议塔利班而遭受镇压,我相信塔利班若不调整自己的执政方针,未来的内部冲突会继续存在。
我们也要明白为何民众知道塔利班打进喀布尔城里的时候,很多人要逃跑去国际机场,尝试搭上任何的飞机逃离该国。那种害怕到抓狂的情景很真实,让人沮丧。

塔利班重夺政权会对国际社会有什么影响?会成为恐怖组织的基地?
就连塔利班本身也常被视为恐怖分子,他们说不会滋养恐怖组织的话,你可以信吗?毕竟他们与卡伊达组织的关系依然密切。坦白说,塔利班也可能管不着那么多,毕竟美国政策似乎不可逆转,也没有太多国家要犯下美国的大错误。他们就是土霸王了,最多要担心偶尔的导弹威胁。
再来,会不会出现更多的恐怖组织,取决于是否有那么多的社会与宗教因素和情绪矛盾可以被利用来号召人士武装这些组织。如果西方国家要担心塔利班滋养恐怖分子,那么就得先对中东国家释放善意和人道对待,同时包容伊斯兰宗教。


Friday, August 20, 2021

BFM Interview: Evolution of MySejahtera

MORE RELAXED SOPS FOR PHASE 1 STATES

Description:

Malaysia’s businesses are slowly reopening, even in Phase 1, for fully vaccinated people. Are we ready? First, we check in with two business owners, one representing F&B, another hairdressers and salons. Then, we look into the complaints around MySejahtera and our digital certificate as a means of verification. Image Source: Louis Hansel - Restaurant Photographer, Unsplash

Produced by: Adeline Choong, Tasha Fusil, Loo Juosie

Presented by: Lee Chwi Lynn, Sharmilla Ganesan

Link here to the page and podcast audio: https://www.bfm.my/podcast/evening-edition/inside-story/more-relaxed-sops-for-phase-1-states

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1. MySejahtera has been around for a while now. How has it been evolving to suit the changing needs of pandemic management? 

Indeed, the first version released on Google Play Store on 17th April last year, with the version name: V1.0.10, until the latest update released on 2nd August this year, V1.0.42, that means Mysejahtera has now about 16 month history and evolved through 32 updates.

Besides the usual check-in function, It has definitely transformed significantly for 4 major uses:

1.   Hotspot identification

2.   Infection risk for oneself

3.   Home quarantine tool to communicate with the authority including the latest feature to update self-test result

4.   Vaccination appointments and digital certification

With its update rate of 5 versions per 2 months since the beginning of National COVID immunisation programme, we shall expect the app software to be sensitive and update frequently to meet the needs of the authority and the users.

 

2. More specifically, there have been complaints from owners of premises that the current app makes signing in rather complicated - especially since now they’d have to check for vaccination status as well. What kinds of changes could make this process smoother and more user-friendly? 

I agree. The current system in the Mysejahtera which produces the digital certificate is too subtle and inconvenient for the business operators to check for the details for every entry on a daily basis. The checker has to be in person getting up close to see the date displayed in the digital certificate. Imagine if the person has to check 60 customers per hour, or 480 customers per day, it would be tiresome. Yet, they would be equally fearful for the hefty compound received if they did not do it properly.

Many have suggested the fastest way to get around this issue is to have the digital certificate turning into a different colour say blue for fully vaccinated persons and that should be easily distinguishable from a distance. Still, if the business operator also has to check the infection risk of the customer, that means he or she needs to look at 2 different interface pages of MySejahtera. Better if the app developer can combine both info shown in one page.

Alternatively, MySejahtera could also consider developing one system for the business owner to scan the customers’ Mysejahtera QR code instead, and this could give a light or sound response for every positive or negative entry.


3. What other features might be helpful at this stage of the pandemic - where vaccinations are still ongoing, and the government is starting to open up the economy? 

For the authority, useful data could be collected from the users based on their vaccination status, to see the behaviour patterns of checking in and infectivity risk in the community.

Many countries are still learning about the vaccination effect on reducing the virus spread. The authority has to devise public health policy based on evidence, so this would be one kind of important info which can provide insights.

For the users, it would be helpful if the authority can set up other Malaysian language versions if possible. This is to learn from the vaksincovid.gov.my efforts. And for the helpdesk service, maybe there should be another button for the call center service catering for people who are not so comfortable in navigating so many options and text lines to find the answer… currently there is only one Emergency call line, this should not be abused.

 

4. And looking at data gathered through MySejahtera - recently, an article by Malaysiakini explored data published by GitHub which showed there were more logins through the app during the recent full lockdown, as compared to MCO3.0. What’s your take on that? 

Yes, the trends described in the article are true. At the national level, it is safe to say that the current activity level judging by the frequencies of unique check ins, we are back to the level of early May, or pre MCO3.0, even though there are about 15% of business locations still do not open during the same period, either they are already foreclosed or they are not ready to let their workers back in. 

The difference is, currently the daily new case number is about 8 times bigger than early May. But if we look into hotspot identification, the number of large hotspots is currently about 55% of the early May, while the number of small hotspots is about the same. This shows that the current MCO or NRP measures can keep large hotspots in check, but not small hotspots.

 

5. Why is this sort of data useful? 

I appreciate such data provided, for us to understand the effects of the government’s pandemic control measures to the behaviour of people in the community and work locations responding to the measures.

The public data is only useful if people do use it and analyse in meaningful ways. Surely the authority has much refined and granular data useful for them to strategize the disease control management and take appropriate actions in particular locality. The public data is currently only provided at the state level. 

 

6. To your knowledge, is this sort of data being used by the government in helping with the process of opening up and recovery? 

If you read the lines from the Director General of Health Dr Noor Hisham’s short statement yesterday, he mentioned that the opening up of economic sectors and relaxation of some restrictions such as dine in, are not based on public health recommendations but on economic consideration. 

So, if the data evidence were seriously employed by the authority to control the pandemic, the policy recommendation should be opposite to what is currently practiced in the NRP phase 1 and 2 states. 

However, this is already not so desirable for the public who are experiencing many socioeconomic issues under prolonged lockdown and severe restrictions. Given the full vaccination coverage is going up rapidly in some states, hence, this is the compromise. People do have a choice to respond, by not utilising the opportunity and freedom given to them, for the infection risk consideration. It is at their own discretion, but there are others who would have to do something to survive for a living. Thus, we should expect high daily new cases perhaps until October.

 

7. How do you see MySejahtera continuing to evolve and change? How long will it continue to be relevant?

MySejahtera will continue to be relevant as long as the pandemic is still on. This MySejahtera app will continue to be part of the major requirements for many SOPs in place, as well as the main communication channels between the people and the authority, and the authority needs the data from MySejahtera app to monitor the situation and take most appropriate actions based on the evidence.

So I expect everyone to keep it in your phone for at least another year, mark my words!

 


Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Malaysiakini interview: MySejahtera data shows more check-ins during lockdown than MCO 3.0 (16 Aug)

Title: MySejahtera data shows more check-ins during lockdown than MCO 3.0

Lim: Lockdown didn't achieve the desired effect

Public health policy researcher Lim Chee Han told Malaysiakini in an interview that even the most stringent lockdown did not appear to have achieved its desired effect.

Lim, a senior researcher at the Third World Network, said for the long period of the total lockdown, Selangorians only managed to reduce their activities or interactions by about a quarter while the number of locations open was reduced by 20 to 30 percent, compared to the mid-April peak activity level.

“The people’s activity level peaked in mid-April and then Covid-19 cases were also picking up from there, leading to the MCO 3.0 being firstly implemented in the six districts in Selangor,” Lim said.

He said in Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, the MCO 3.0 and total lockdown periods brought activity level down to at most 50 percent but this later crept back up while the total lockdown had a milder reduction of about 25 percent until the enhanced MCO dented it a little.

According to Lim's ground observation in the Petaling district, one of the districts with the highest daily Covid-19 cases in the country, the trend is similar to the MySejahtera data for the lockdown period.

“Even if I don’t go out that much and work from home, with at the most twice-weekly trips for grocery shopping, I notice the condominium residents car park is increasingly vacant during the day, ” he said.

He also noticed that traffic flow on the Federal Highway was getting heavier by day, parking lots in front of shop lots getting filled up faster and an increasing number of roadside stalls selling takeaway food.

“Hence the so-called measure stringency of any MCO can only be true and effective if there is total compliance and strict enforcement from the authority,” Lim stressed.

Nonetheless, he reminded that the numbers for check-ins using MySejahtera cannot serve as an absolute number for people active outside of their homes, though it still can be useful as an indicator for the level of people’s interactions and activities outside.

“For example, if you stay home and order food or grocery by delivery, then delivery persons will have to sign in, undermining the reality that many do stay at home or work from home,” he said.

Full article: here