AgoraPOV#3
I would like to emphasise that reopening the international borders is a matter of time, eventually we have to do this. So what we need to argue and discuss today is about the timing: when is the better timing to do that, given that the Omicron-led pandemic wave is rising in Malaysia and expected to peak by the end of March?
Bear in mind that yesterday (14 Feb) the number was already 21 thousand cases. If the government were to reopen the international borders on 1st March, would that come too soon? Did the National Recovery Council take full consideration of the impacts of the current wave of global pandemic? Now we know that the Omicron variant is highly contagious and easily spread. The more cases we have in the communities,higher the number of hospitalisation, will stress our healthcare system and cripple the economy due to quarantined absentees.
As it stands, the NRC policy recommendation is just an advice to the Cabinet. The Prime Minister’s statement clarifies that the proposal has not yet been discussed and approved in the Cabinet, and he ordered more studies looking into the proposal especially by the Health ministry.
So, what would be the immediate impacts of reopening the international borders to all by 1st March?
The current border measure is that, only Malaysians, Permanent Residents and certain visa holders are allowed to come back but have to take Covid tests and observe mandatory quarantine for a period of 5-10 days depending on their vaccination status. Singapore-Malaysia VTL and Langkawi ‘travel bubble’ pilot projects are the two exceptions. So, if Malaysia reopens the borders to all, that means any traveller could enter Malaysia without subject to mandatory quarantine other than COVID test requirement as suggested by the NRC chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin. This would mean significantly more travellers, be it Malaysians abroad and foreigners, could be allowed in without quarantine. The question is, how effective is the control of just COVID tests to deter the transmission from the travellers to the local community?
Looking at the MOH COVID Github data, since the end of last year, the number of daily imported cases hovering around 100-500. It should come as no surprise because the Omicron-led pandemic wave was hitting many countries in the world earlier than Malaysia, and it is still serious currently. The latest genome sequencing data reported until 28 Jan 2022 shows that 90.7% of Omicron variant cases found in Malaysia were imported, while GISAID database shows that 92.3% Europe-UK and 90.5% North American cases were sequenced to be Omicron on 31 Jan. The variant trend might have changed for Malaysia since then, but it is not overstated that the Omicron variant has already dominated in other countries.
Even if I am ok for the government to allow all to enter, but to do away with mandatory quarantine order, to me, it is ill-thought given the current pandemic scenario and the health authority are working hard to keep the local infections under control.
If the borders were to reopen as Muhyiddin had suggested, many Malaysians and family members abroad might take the opportunity to come back to visit during the peak of the Omicron-led pandemic wave in March. This would put them at risk too, for the flight journey where they have to be extra-cautious, as well as back home facing probably rising local risk due to the worst period of the Omicron-led pandemic.
The news could be very welcoming for some who want to travel to Malaysia for tourism activities. Given that some countries are still facing high levels of infection cases, it is very likely that some might carry the viruses across or acquired during the flight, bringing them to Malaysia. The nature of tourism activities includes visiting many places across the country, then it could be likely that some of the unfortunate cases serve to seed further local infections.
Besides, credits have to go to the health authority and Malaysian government for warding off the Omicron viruses initially, keeping the local infection in check through active border health surveillance activities. Mandatory quarantine policy does help prevent many imported cases spilling to the local community. Just to compare, Omicron finally breached into the local community and spiking the cases in Malaysia at least one to two month later than most countries. This buys the country a lot of time, and certainly allowed CNY family reunions possible this year.
So I urge the authority to consider amending the NCR proposal to at least include some quarantine measures in the reopening border policy, just to help disease control at the moment. The government can review and revoke this order after the Omicron-led pandemic wave has come down. Surely quarantine measures also cannot be kept indefinitely
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