數據研究經驗談

 我希望我國教育能培養出有一定解讀和分析數據能力的民眾。同時，大眾要能明白和珍惜數據收集、處理、核對、分析、製圖、發表和表達等整個過程牽涉的人力和技術。數據是有價值的，需要創造和管理的，這不是理所當然。要特別小心某些利益集團正收集和濫用有關你的個人資料。因此，政府應該加強管制個人數據和資料的收集、傳送和使用。

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【文／林志翰】

數據——在日常生活裡，對一般人以及研究員而言有什麼意義，兩者看待數據的態度又有什麼不同？你會相信數據，被數據說服嗎？開放數據是好東西？或者局限應該在哪裡？本文憑著作者過去的學習和工作經驗嘗試回答這些提問。

或有人會埋怨為何政府或機構乃至公司單位不提供完整數據。究竟如何才算完整數據呢？我們可否先知道這些數據是否存在、以什麼格式存在，才來質疑這些單位不能或不願意全部公開的原因。

數據不會從天而降。首先一定要考慮是否有收集數據資訊的機制——這就是原始數據（primary data）或數據的最小單位的來源。比如，你想知道巴生（Klang）有多少家餐館，那麼對官方數據來源而言，地方政府和衛生部即以這些餐館業者申請執照時提呈的數據為準。

如果你要知道更仔細的資訊。比如，巴生有多少家肉骨茶餐館，那就要看這些餐館業主註冊時是否有需要填寫註明餐廳的種類。否則，你就得憑著餐廳名稱來作判斷其種類。除了業主自己填寫資料的統計，第三方也可通過本身的市場調查方式或搜索來估計這數目。

再來相當重要的是，數據的定義。就以上的例子，何謂「餐館」（外賣為主的飲料店或雪糕店算嗎？），「肉骨茶」（攤位檔口而已算嗎？），甚至「巴生」是指哪個範圍（根據地方政府的管轄範圍、國會議席選區、土地局劃定的市區還是縣區？）。數據統計的結果有分歧就可能是計算方式或定義不同而導致。

數據統計的準確度和確信度視所謂定義的可被接受程度。經常被環保份子挑戰和質疑的數據就如：永久森林保護區（Hutan simpanan kekal）和森林覆蓋地面積，只因為政府引用的定義是根據土地的憲報類別，而非通過高空俯視圖或親臨鑒定該區是否還有森林。結果，政府的森林數據可說統計得不夠精確、不符合現實，很多稱呼為永久森林保護區是不見（原始）樹，也不見林，已被夷平為曠地，或全部已翻種為橡膠樹等。

不少人容易誤會數據就等於統計數據（Statistics）。沒錯，統計數據是摘自原始數據，再演算綜合分析而成。同樣的原始數據庫可以導出各種統計數據，若有關當局全都發佈，會有意義嗎？因此，很多時候當局鎖定某些統計數據，定期公佈給大眾。這對於他們的部門或機構職責和功能而言是最主要或最重要的。同時，這也是公眾有可能最在乎和最期待的數據組。可是，一般上的政府數據會停留在全國或到州級的統計。這讓研究員（無論是政策或市場調查）都很懊惱。他們會要求縣級、地方政府管轄區、乃至國州議席選區的數據細分。當中的理由很簡單，國和州依然是很大的範圍的。如果只是綜合平均起來的數字，很容易忽略問題嚴重的地區或受影響的社區群體。

經常遇到公眾或研究員要求有關當局提供根據種族群體的統計數據細分。在我國這個族群分化仍相當嚴重的國度，這樣的要求可說是反映出國情和文化。可惜，這不盡然合情合理，怎麼說？這通常容易導致種族偏見和衝突。比如，衛生部公佈骨痛熱症（dengue fever）數據，但并没有刊出受感染的族群統計分類。二〇二一年，我國有26000宗骨痛熱症病例。假設其中馬來土著有18000宗，華裔有4000宗，這數據要如何解讀和比較？最糟糕的是，公眾揣測和污名化某些族群，指責相關群體「髒」、「懶惰」，或說某些生活文化習慣造成病例嚴重。毫無科學根據地解讀這樣的統計，反而不會對社會有幫助。

坦白說，不少工作單位和機構，由於職務和功能的關係，一直收集大量不同組別的數據。有時。公眾會認為政府若不公開數據，就是有所隱瞞。但是，真的有可能都公開所有的數據嗎？不知大家還記不記得，我國處在新冠疫情正嚴重之時，各界一直施壓政府公開數據。最後，政府在凱里（Khairy Jamaluddin）擔任衛生部長期間，公佈相當仔細的部分原始數據（列明每個病例的基本資料），放置在衛生部的Covid-19 GitHub數據庫。可是，這是一個充滿大量數字的數據庫，只有對數據有分析能力的研究員才會有幫助，一般公眾看不懂。

再說，這些數據需要有人負責設立機制收集和處理、檢查核對準確度、演算統計，甚至有時需要製圖及分析。這些都是耗時耗力的工作。若是政府聘請公務員來每天執行這些任務，這也會花費不少納稅人的錢。同時，也不是每個政府部門和機構都有相關技術和能力的公務員處理公開數據和統計。因此，若要定期公佈數據的細分細節，當局就要在資源有限的情況下斟酌和取捨。這無關要隱瞞。此外，很多數據也牽涉到個人和群體隱私問題，不能、也不該直接公佈。

當然，如果政府部門有意願、有技術、也有資源，當然也可以做得更好。就如衛生部在新冠疫情期間與COVIDNOW私人技術團隊合作，架設了一個有關最新官方疫情資訊的衛生部網站，這個就能讓大部分公眾和媒體輕易了解統計數據和圖表，達到傳達訊息和消息的目的。另一公私合作的應用程式KitaJaga，結合了國內貿易及生活費部PriceCatcher和統計局提供的數據，通過私人開發的平台把數據資訊以地圖定位分佈的方式公開分享給公眾。

另外，就個人隱私而言，我們其實更應擔心的是私人界，特別是跨國科技巨頭如谷歌（Google）、臉書（Facebook）等掌握我們的數據資料。這些數據資料是每一天，甚至是每時每刻都提供給這些企業的。當你發現有人會突然發短訊給你，或社交媒體的廣告對準你不久前刷屏、點擊或搜索，甚至是與人聊天的內容，你就知道個人資訊被商品化，你的隱私隨時被侵犯。

一般上，一些涉及敏感及隱私的個人數據，例如，某些疾病研究需要病例個案資料，那麼該研究員就得做好研究計劃書，以向醫藥倫理委員會申請批准，確保只有通過檢驗和倫理審查的特定人士才能獲得某些數據。相關研究必須帶著有利科學和社會利益的目的。更常見的是，研究員需要先得到相關研究對象的同意才行。因此，在這些情況，不自動公開數據是一個負責任的程序和方式，以防止資料數據遭到濫用。

數據是有價值的。公開數據對於每個人會有不同的價值。基本上，私人界也可獲取和利用這些數據。若這些有助於為社會和經濟活動增值，我覺得無可厚非。

本人身為研究員，平時最難得到的（免費）數據資料就是源自於私人界。私人界需要獲取的資料，倘若不在政府平時收集的範圍，一般會通過第三方：如市場調查機構或咨詢公司購買獲取資料。這些數據資料價格不菲。但是，有些攸關大眾利益的數據，例如：掌握在私人醫院診所的醫療和消費數據、公交經營者的乘客路線乘搭數據、私人教育學府的課程人數和收入等。這些業者必須強制繳交某些統計數據給當局。最好能與公立機構的統計數據公開程度相符，不能以商業機密為藉口不配合。更何況，這些私人機構都由官聯公司管理或掌控，自然應該可以在公開數據上扮演角色。

最後，我希望我國教育能培養出有一定解讀和分析數據能力的民眾。同時，大眾要能明白和珍惜數據收集、處理、核對、分析、製圖、發表和表達等整個過程牽涉的人力和技術。數據是有價值的，需要創造和管理的，這不是理所當然。要特別小心某些利益集團正收集和濫用有關你的個人資料。因此，政府應該加強管制個人數據和資料的收集、傳送和使用。

原文鏈接：http://contemporary-review.com.my/2023/04/28/1-518/

Full Response to TOC on royal pardon for Najib (21 Apr)

 

1.  In your opinion, why is UMNO so keen on freeing Najib? Is it because they view him as their potential "savior" to win back Malay support?

Najib to UMNO is like Erling Haaland to Manchester City, in football terms, Najib is definitely UMNO's superstar striker, he can score 'goals' and provide big 'assists' for UMNO, winning back votes and seats for UMNO, which desperately needs such a turnaround in their political fortunes.

How strong is his 'firepower': his social media influence?

Here are his follower numbers on some key platforms:

4.1 million (Twitter), 4.6 million (Facebook), 1 million (Instagram). 

He often knows how to create a hot topic of discussion with his witty short comments, poking fun at political opponents.

His influence is not only on social media, but look at the whirlwind he created wherever he went (when he was still a free man). His star power cannot be overstated, and he is likely to retain it and has the ability to draw large crowds. 

Looking at the by-election results since the Tanjung Piai by-election, and recalling the outcome of 2 major state elections in Melaka and Johor, Najib's involvement had certainly helped the case and brought the most favourable results for UMNO.

Compare again what has happened to UMNO since Najib is in jail? UMNO and BN could only win 30 seats in GE15, another half of their last so-called worst performance in GE14. What's more damning? UMNO-BN lost their votes to PN because the latter was said to have a more influential and effective social media campaign!

Those in UMNO who want Najib’s release are surely hoping he will help the campaign, especially in the crucial upcoming 6 state elections.

 

2.   Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaacob has described the alliance between PH and UMNO as a "forced marriage." Do you agree with this description, and what implications could it have for the Unity Government?

I do not think that the political alliance between PH and UMNO is a "forced marriage", but see it as a "marriage of convenience" - both sides, especially the leaders, are willing parties, more than happy to hold hands and join forces as long as they can share the spoils of government and stay in power. UMNO could have gotten a worse deal if it had been "forced" to form a coalition government with PN; similarly, PH doesn't have enough seats to form a government on its own, and would certainly be happy if the "kingmaker" UMNO-BN decided to back PH to lead the new government after GE15.

But what Ismail Sabri said could have implications for UMNO's reputation and image. He made UMNO sound like it was compromising too much, forced to play second fiddle to PH, the former political opponent UMNO always tries to demonise. Ismail Sabri's statement could be perceived and resonate with traditional UMNO supporters, especially by casting doubt on the party's unchallenged president, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

 

3.  With the Royal pardon petition to free Najib gaining momentum, could this jeopardize the stability of the ruling Unity Government coalition?

If political mileage is the only consideration, rather than principles of justice, even PH would have much to gain from a royal pardon for Najib. They might want UMNO to strengthen their hands and not concede any more seats to the PN in the upcoming 6 state elections. Moreover, if it were a decision by the royalty, "at the king's discretion" as Law Minister Azalina claimed, the government should not be implicated in influencing it.

However, it took Transport Minister and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke to issue a statement distancing the government from the royal pardon petition and saying that it was UMNO's stance to support it. He only said that the matter was never discussed in the cabinet meeting, stopping short of saying that he or his party colleagues disagreed with the royal pardon petition. In fact, not many politicians in the unity government have voiced their objections. It is unclear how this petition could threaten the stability of the government, but if members of the ruling coalition are seen not to be helping, or worse, blocking UMNO's efforts, tensions could arise.

4.    If Najib is freed, what political costs could Anwar and PH potentially face?

 

PN supporters would definitely call the bluff of Anwar and PH's anti-corruption stance if the government's efforts were impartial or merely for political convenience: how could a convicted person with strong evidence of corruption go free while their PN leaders are now being investigated and 'harassed' by the corruption charges? PN supporters would cry injustice and claim victimhood, and this could reinforce the perception among ordinary people that the government is selectively prosecuting to score political points. Certainly, PH supporters would defend that this is not the government's position and that it is unfair to accuse their leaders, but this news may not go down well with many.

5.    Will UMNO lose more Malay support to Perikatan National if they continue to push for Najib's release?

UMNO would definitely like to have Najib's superstar power to help with the campaign to deter the PN; it is a safer bet that UMNO stands to gain more if Najib is released.

On the other hand, if Najib does not get his wish, UMNO would have to face the louder music from the PN.

From a technical point of view, as there are still a number of charges against Najib that have not been completed in court, there could be some risks if Najib could be sent back to jail for other convictions... Then there is the question of if Najib is released now on royal pardon, what about later, could he get another chance?

Najib can be liability to UMNO to win back Malay support as they push for his royal pardon, says political analyst （21 Apr Interview by TOC）

 

‘Najib to UMNO is like Erling Haaland to Manchester City’

Dr Lim Chee Han, Co-founder of Agora Society Malaysia, suggested that Najib to UMNO is like Erling Haaland to Manchester City, “Najib is definitely UMNO’s superstar striker, he can score ‘goals’ and provide big ‘assists’ for UMNO, winning back votes and seats for UMNO, which desperately needs such a turnaround in their political fortunes.”

According to Dr Lim, Najib’s social media following is massive, with 4.6 million followers on Facebook, 1 million on Instagram, and 4.1 million on Twitter.

“He often knows how to create a hot topic of discussion with his witty short comments, poking fun at political opponents,” said Dr Lim in an interview with TOC.

Looking at the by-election results since the Tanjung Piai by-election, and recalling the outcome of 2 major state elections in Melaka and Johor, Najib’s involvement had certainly helped the case and brought the most favourable results for UMNO.

Dr Lim noted that UMNO’s performance in GE15 was poor due to losing votes to PN, partly attributed to the latter’s more effective social media campaign, and those in UMNO hoping for Najib’s release to boost their chances in the upcoming state elections.

AD

PH might want UMNO to strengthen their hands

Regarding the potential impact of a royal pardon for Najib on the ruling Unity Government’s stability, Dr Lim suggested that even PH could benefit from such a move if political gains outweigh justice.

“They might want UMNO to strengthen their hands and not concede any more seats to the PN in the upcoming six state elections. ”

Moreover, if it were a decision by the royalty, “at the king’s discretion” as Law Minister Azalina claimed, the government should not be implicated in influencing it.

He mentioned that Transport Minister and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke from PH, distanced the government from the petition, but did not voice objections or mention any disagreement from his party colleagues.

...

PN supporters would definitely call the bluff of Anwar and PH’s anti-corruption stance

Dr Lim also warned that PN supporters would definitely call out Anwar and PH on their anti-corruption stance: how could a convicted person with strong evidence of corruption go free while their PN leaders are now being investigated and ‘harassed’ by the corruption charges?

“PN supporters would cry injustice and claim victimhood, and this could reinforce the perception among ordinary people that the government is selectively prosecuting to score political points. ”

...

Dr Lim: political alliance between PH and UMNO as a “marriage of convenience”

Meanwhile, Dr Lim does not think that the political alliance between PH and UMNO is a “forced marriage”, but rather a “marriage of convenience”.

“Both sides, especially the leaders, are willing parties, more than happy to hold hands and join forces as long as they can share the spoils of government and stay in power. ”

He said UMNO could have gotten a worse deal if it had been “forced” to form a coalition government with PN.

Similarly, PH doesn’t have enough seats to form a government on its own, and it would certainly be happy if the “kingmaker” UMNO-BN decided to back PH to lead the new government after GE15.

Dr Lim said Ismail Sabri’s statement could harm UMNO’s reputation by portraying the party as compromising too much and playing second fiddle to former political opponent PH, which could cast doubt on party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and resonate with traditional UMNO supporters.

...

Full article URL here: https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2023/04/21/najib-can-be-liability-to-umno-to-win-back-malay-support-as-they-push-for-his-royal-pardon-says-political-analyst

988時事100度-4月28日

 

点评课题：

1. 传国盟拉拢议员辞职补选倒安华

2. 巫统恳求元首特赦纳吉

3. 反贪会调查法官掀起的争议

現場點評錄影：

https://fb.watch/kccMSrhV6G/

议员可以或应该随意跳槽吗？（董总《中学生》4月版）

 马来西亚是个君主立宪的民主国家，这个国家体制承袭自1957年生效的马来亚联邦宪法（1963年改名为马来西亚联邦宪法）。

我国之所以是个民主国家，其中一个重大要素是我国有定期举行选举：国会选举选出各选区的人民代议士（国会议员，目前有222席）。当中掌握最多议员支持的人选出任首相，首相则有权推荐最高元首委任他的内阁成员（部长们）及其他前座议员（副部长们）。这些就是所谓的民选政府。同样的过程，州选举也推选出州务大臣或首长，由他们组织州内阁。

首相人选依照惯例是由国会最大联盟和政党的党魁来担任，过去在国民阵线（国阵）一党独大的情况下毫无疑问地让胜选的巫统主席任相。在我国，议员通常都拥有党籍，独立议员是极少数。政党在民主制度里扮演着重要的角色，其中一个是代表某种政治理念和原则，让拥有相同价值观的人民可以自由结社组织政党，聚集力量动员争取更多选民的支持，以让该党的候选人（通常已是党员）可以胜选落实这些政治理念。

选举时，政党竞选机器启动，投入资源为旗下的候选人助选。投票日当天，选民的选票上有该候选人的名字和党标志并列在一起。除非那人是独立候选人使用指定的标志之一，选民投票既是投给候选人也投给政党。

在马来西亚，特别是西马，政党代表身份特别影响选民的投票倾向。“选党不选人”倾向，对于华裔选民来说更为明显——根据去年大选成绩分析，高达94%华裔选民一面倒投给希望联盟（希盟）候选人。

1988年沙里尔退出巫统后，以独立人士身份竞选新山国席补选胜出已成为了西马政治的绝响了；而2018年大选峇都国会议席由巴拉峇卡兰以独立人士胜出，情况不一样不能算数，原因是获得被取消竞选资格的希盟原任候选人蔡添强的全力支持。后来该议员也加入了公正党。

在还未制定《反跳槽法》之前，无论是国会议席或州议席皆属于该议员的名下，而议员本身在任的时候仍享有结社自由。跳槽，意即从A党议员退党转为B党议员，但也有人先转为独立议员，过后才加入另一政党，这些动作过去都不会影响该议员的资格。

在我国，议员跳槽事件过去一直频频发生。国阵长年执政中央时，跳槽通常是单向的，少有动摇政权，除了联邦执政党国阵要篡权。沙巴州在历史上多次民选政府易手，以及2009年霹雳民联州政府垮台就是其中的例子。还有，跳槽议员被收买、获得金钱利益或权位好处一直被人诟病，相信不少选民也会生气自己选出的政党代表背叛了他们的委托，可是过去人民似乎都在容忍着“跳槽文化”。

2020年喜来登政变和随后的政治动荡席卷多个州政权，如沙巴、马六甲和柔佛，这些都与议员为了政治利益跳槽或撤消对政府的支持有关。这些政治动荡的负面影响严重冲击选民对民主选举制度的信心，成为了依斯迈沙比里领导的政府与希盟领袖签署合作备忘录里要落实的重要政治改革法案之一：反跳槽法，并于去年7月28日在国会一致通过修改宪法，法律在10月5日生效。

《反跳槽法》主要针对结社自由方面设下了限制，列明在任的国会议员和州议员的权益受限于第49A新增条例。而这条例说明一位议员如果他退党或不再是该党党员（‘ceases to be a member of the political party’）将丧失议员资格，议席将悬空进行补选（但该人可以再参选）。同时胜选的独立议员也不能在选后加入政党。只有三种情况下是例外，可保住议员资格：该议员（一）党籍因党解散而受影响；（二）获委任为议长后而退党；（三）被开除党籍。

可惜这个法律并不完美。例外（三）是跨党议员们辩论政策妥协的结果，主要是担心党领导坐大，要议员们“听话”，不然被开除就丧失席位代表资格。可是这个例外却与“不再是该党党员”的条例有所冲突。因此，在大选前，民主行动党和诚信党分别召开特别大会修改党章阐明何谓“不再是该党党员”，为的是避免未来行动被诠释为“开除党籍”。笔者认为这并不足以化解争议。

去年底闹得沸沸扬扬的沙巴人民联盟（GRS）原籍沙巴土团党的4名议员宣布退出原党（包括沙巴首长哈芝芝本身），这动作也惹了不少宪法诠释的争议。由于这4名议员辩称自己是在GRS的旗帜下竞选，GRS也允许直属成员，所以没有违反《反跳槽法》。而沙巴州宪法里还未加入《反跳槽法》，以致14名前沙巴土团党州议员可过关转换新党籍身份。到底《反跳槽法》里诠释的政党是否已足够清楚，可以包括已注册的政治联盟吗？这起沙巴个案让人看到了《反跳槽法》的漏洞。

除此之外，《反跳槽法》也无法阻挡政党集体选择换边支持，因此不能阻止类似喜来登政变：土团党退出希盟，联合另一边的政治势力组织新政府的结果。《反跳槽法》固然有其不足之处，但至少可以有效减缓直接跳槽所带来的政局动荡。笔者也支持增设《罢免法》，好让选民有机会针对一位议员的滥权、失信或行为不检，在任期内收回对他的委托，因为《反跳槽法》就只涵盖议员的跳槽行为而已。

原文链接：

https://dzblueprint.dongzong.my/component/content/article/121-author/1104-1104

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Malaysia takes significant step towards abolition of death penalty, say activists (TOC, 10 Apr)

 Malaysia has taken a significant step towards the abolition of the death penalty by passing the Abolition of Mandatory Death Penalty Bill 2023 in its Lower House of Parliament on 3 April.

The abolishment of the mandatory death penalty means that judges will now have discretion in considering all the circumstances of the offense and the offender before deciding whether to impose a death sentence or a prison sentence not exceeding 40 years.

The bill will now go to Malaysia’s upper house, the Dewan Negara, for review and, if passed, will be sent to the King for signing into law. The upper house is expected to test the bills on 11 April.

The bill replaces 11 offences previously punishable by an automatic death sentence with discretionary sentences to be decided on a case-by-case basis by judges.

The death penalty will also be removed as an option for some serious crimes that do not cause death, such as discharging of a firearm and trafficking and kidnapping.

The bill received unanimous support from lawmakers and will reduce the number of offences punishable by death and abolish natural life prison sentences.

Since 2018, Malaysia has placed a moratorium on executions, and this new law is seen as a crucial move towards restricting the use of capital punishment.

Civil society in Malaysia and international rights groups welcomed the passing of the bill in Malaysia’s Parliament, believing that the abolition of the mandatory death penalty in Malaysia is a significant achievement for Malaysia’s civil society efforts.

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Ngeow Chow Ying, a practising lawyer in Kuala Lumpur and anti-death penalty activist, said many individuals and human rights organisation in Malaysia has long advocated for the abolition of the death penalty.

“The move towards abolition of the death penalty ran across five different governments and over a decade. It is the collective efforts of all involved in shaping public narrative and pushing for the law maker to take up the reform. ”

Ms Ngeow was part of a team of lawyers who represented Malaysian Yong Vui Kong and joined the ‘Save Vui Kong’ campaign, which advocated clemency for Mr Yong, who was on death row for drug trafficking in Singapore.

Vui Kong was arrested in June 2007. He was 18 and a half years old then. The Singapore courts subsequently sentenced him to death for trafficking 47g of heroin into Singapore.

He was originally scheduled to hang on 4 December 2009, but back then, the Yong family, civil society groups both in Malaysia and Singapore worked round the clock, organising public forums and collecting signatures online and on the streets to appeal to then-President Nathan to spare Vui Kong’s life.

On 14 November 2013, Yong’s death penalty was lifted after he was given the Certificate of Cooperation by Singapore’s Attorney-General’s Chambers.

He was the first drug trafficker on death row in the country to have his sentence reduced to life imprisonment. The ‘Save Vui Kong’ campaign was widely seen as a successful example of how civil society groups can help to secure justice for individuals facing the death penalty.

Crucial step towards the total abolition of the death penalty in Malaysia

Dr Lim Chee Han, Co-founder of Agora Society Malaysia, stated that the move is a “huge step forward”, as the movement towards abolition started with the Save Vui Kong campaign in 2010, and since then, civil society has engaged with the public, politicians, and the government.

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“While there have been other notable milestones, such as the moratorium on death penalty executions since 2018, the removal of the 11 mandatory death sentence offences is a key stepping stone towards abolition, and there are law ministers, past and present, who are working towards this goal.”

Both Dr Lim and Ms Ngeow agreed that the abolition of the mandatory death penalty is a crucial step towards the total abolition of the death penalty in Malaysia.

Ms Ngeow also noted that the current law reform is a clear example that it takes political will to bring about the abolition of the death penalty, while previous governments had talked about abolition, it took only three months for the current government to make it a reality.

“With the moratorium in place, society will slowly accept that we actually don’t need to execute people to keep us safe. There are more to law and order than simply killing. ”

Professor Saul Lehrfreund, Co-Executive Director of The Death Penalty Project, believes that the passing of the bill is a major milestone for Malaysia and could inspire other countries in the region to reform their own death penalty laws.

“Malaysia’s move comes at a time when some Southeast Asian countries have increased their use of capital punishment,” said Prof Lehrfreund

‘Malaysia’s judge can still deliver the death penalty’

On whether current Malaysia’s laws are able to uphold justice for serious crimes such as murder and drug trafficking, Dr Lim who also works as a senior researcher at Third World Network said there is a lack of concrete evidence to link the death penalty as an effective deterrent to serious crimes such as murder, as compared to a prison term.

“Drug trafficking does not meet the international law which often reserves the death penalty to be used for the “most serious crimes” – drug crime does not meet that threshold.”

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Ms Ngeow also noted that Malaysia has only abolished the mandatory death penalty, which means that the judge can, after considering all mitigating circumstances, still hands down the death penalty or, in the alternative imprisonment of 30-40 years plus canning.

“If the judge, after hearing all circumstances, considers that the crime committed is most serious and warrants a death penalty, he can still deliver the death penalty.”

Ms Ngeow, also vice-president of the Civil Rights Committee of the Kuala Lumpur & Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall, said abolitionists argued that restorative justice, which emphasizes redemption and rehabilitation rather than retribution, is a more humane and effective approach to criminal justice.

Challenges achieving total abolition of the death penalty

On the challenges to achieving total abolition of the death penalty for all crimes, Ms Ngeow noted that this is a long process as it does not have the support of society, and the government will face pressure in its total abolition.

The biggest challenge is that concepts such as mandatory death penalty, judge’s discretion, and mitigating circumstances are legal jargon and concept that are difficult to explain to the general public, Ms Ngeow said.

“When the government announced the abolition of the mandatory death penalty, many take it that there will be no more death penalty and that murderer will walk free in the society. It takes a lot of explainer and outreach to explain the difference. ”

Ms Ngeow also highlighted the survey conducted by The Centre in 2019, in which many people believe that if there are circumstances that can justify that the accused does not “deserve” the death penalty, they would prefer an alternative punishment.

Dr Lim said the public sentiments could be easily riled up for the anti-abolition movement, sometimes linked to political mileage to some politicians and political parties on the anti-abolition side.

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“Whenever instances of serious and horrifying crimes took place, general public tend to resort to the death penalty as a ‘natural justice’ method, reactionary. Simple poll of public opinion cannot be sought as the yardstick of public understanding of the issue.”

Dr Lim highlighted that in the past, abolitionist NGOs and individuals were often told to change public opinion in their favor before the government would act.

However, the recent abolition of the mandatory death penalty shows that the government can still do the right thing even if it is not popular at that time.

“This latest move certainly would augur well with Malaysia’s image and reputation as a member of the UN Human Rights Council.”

A reference country on how to transition to an abolitionist state

Prof Lehrfreund said that the new law will restrict the use of capital punishment in Malaysia and allow more than 1,300 people currently on death row to have their sentences reviewed.

“The reforms have been a long time coming and individuals and human rights organisations in Malaysia should be applauded for their persistence and courage in advocating for change.”

Both Dr Lim and Ms Ngeow hope that Malaysia can now serve as a reference country on how to transition to an abolitionist state, and many other countries will follow suit.

Dr Lim added that Malaysia shows the way for abolitionist activists and their respective governments how to do it step-by-step; the latest case of development should motivate them moving to the same direction.

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Ms Ngeow emphasized that the mandatory death penalty is arbitrary and violates the right to life, which is why it has been deemed unconstitutional in many countries.

She also pointed out that only a few retentionist countries, including Singapore, still uphold this practice.

“The significant, in my opinion, is that in a country like Malaysia where society are generally conservative in terms of law and order and criminal justice, it is a crack for the light to shine through, as society starts to reflect on ourselves, and hopefully for us to eventually move away from this cruel and inhuman punishment, ” Ms Ngeow said.

The original news link: https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2023/04/10/malaysia-takes-significant-step-towards-abolition-of-death-penalty-say-activists

Is another government collapse imminent in Malaysia? (TOC , 22 March)

 Earlier this month, Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang, the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) president, defended the Perikatan National (PN) coalition’s right to continue its plan to overthrow the Unity Government.

Hadi Awang, Deputy Chairman of the biggest opposition coalition PN in the parliament, said toppling a government is normal in politics.

“We see signs indicating that in this mixed government, there is dissatisfaction among its own components. It happens. That is why something like this is not impossible,” he told reporters on 6 March.

Malaysia has been embroiled in political turmoil for the past four years, culminating in the infamous “Sheraton Move” in 2022 that led to the downfall of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government – which ended Barisan Nasional’s (BN) dominance in Malaysia that had lasted for over half a century.

Hence, it is understandable that PAS President Hadi Awang’s recent remarks have drawn criticism for dishonouring the Malaysian King’s wish for political stability and his majesty’s advice for political leaders to focus on economic recovery.

However, is there a possibility of another government collapse in Malaysia, as suggested by PAS president?

No surprise for Hadi Awang on overthrowing Govt

According to James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, Hadi Awang is sending a signal that he wants strong support from the Malay community in the upcoming state elections.

“When Hadi Awang talked about all this, and also increasing racist statements towards the non-Malay community in Malaysia, he is doing this with an eye on the upcoming six state elections, so we should not be surprised about the fact that he’s always talking about the overthrow of the current government.”

The six states — Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan, Selangor, and Terengganu — have agreed to dissolve their respective state assemblies in the last two weeks of June, with polls due later this year.

Unity government understands PN’s threat

Dr Lim Chee Han, Co-founder of Agora Society Malaysia, notes that the current unity government, which is composed of Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Zahid’s Barisan National, already saw the threat of PN challenging them in many seats.

“So, both sides took the position that the best defence is offence: Anwar’s government wastes no time to pin down BERSATU leaders, trying to create a rift and cleavage between BERSATU and PAS.”

Dr Lim, who is also a senior researcher at Third World Network, an international non-profit research and advocacy organisation, said PH must have remembered well from the first PH government, the coalition government just started to crack after the anti-ICERD rallies at the end of 2018.

PH later suffered continuous losses in a streak of by-elections, and popularity and its approval ratings started to decline. The new political reality forced the hands of BERSATU to break away from PH.

In Dr Lim’s opinion, Hadi Awang is trying to divert attention and launch his offence to the Unity government – though the word choice of ‘overthrow’ is controversial.

“Given the Anti-hopping laws do give leeway for political parties to choose their own coalition, the new governing coalition reshuffling might not be impossible, but for what reasons/benefits the current governing members want to ‘jump ship’ to be with PN? ”

“Currently I really see no apparent reason this could happen, unless in near future Anwar messes it up the coalition members’ relationship,” Dr Lim said.

Recent arrests and charges a ‘tremendous big blow’ to BERSATU

According to Dr Lim, the recent arrests and charges of BERSATU leaders have dealt a tremendous blow to the party’s leaders. Their party account has been frozen, which means they cannot operate their cash flow and pay their rent and staff.

“How could they be prepared for the upcoming six state elections? And all their donation proceeds are stuck there; the financial war chest is rendered useless now.”

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Dr Lim also expressed concern that the prosecution has tainted BERSATU leaders with corruption, undermining their previous anti-corruption campaign during GE15.

While there may be political reasons and selective prosecution behind the investigations, there is also the question of how the party obtained the money and who their paymasters were.

Professor Chin, on the other hand, believes that the recent prosecution of BERSATU leaders will not significantly alter the political landscape of Malaysia.

“Everybody understands that the current unwavering government does not enjoy the support of the majority of the Malay voters.”

Anwar’s unity government does not enjoy the support of the majority of the Malay voters

James Chin pointed out that the majority of Malay voters sided with BERSATU and PAS, which together garnered more Malay votes than UMNO and PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat led by Anwar Ibrahim).

“So the current charges is all about positioning in this case, BERSATU has been positioning themselves as the clean version of UMNO. “

In other words, BERSATU is trying to convince Malay voters to vote for them by presenting themselves as a Malay nationalist party that is also clean, unlike UMNO.

“So by being charged with corruption, they cannot use that (moral high ground) anymore in the coming elections.”

Anwar needs to win at least three states in the upcoming six State Elections

According to Prof Chin, the current political instability in Malaysia is expected to be resolved by the upcoming six-state elections.

“If Anwar wants to lead a stable government, he has to win a minimum of three states, and the three states are Negeri Sembilan, Penang and Selangor.“

Prof Chin also highlighted that if Pakatan Harapan manages to win Kedah, it would be a significant signal that Anwar’s government has won back the Malay ground.

Dr Lim commented that both Zahid and Anwar need each other to make it through this political turmoil.

“Without UMNO in the government, without the governing resources, Zahid’s position as UMNO president is becoming untenable. Without UMNO in the governing coalition make-up, the coalition is also unstable; it gives even stronger bullets to the opposition that the government is basically lacking in bumiputera/Malay’s strong presence.”

Therefore, Dr Lim suggests that UMNO’s decision to stay in the governing coalition would be the primary concern for the unity government.

Much easier for Malaysian Govt to fall if whole big block in coalition withdraws

In order to ensure the stability of the unity government, Anwar Ibrahim as the coalition leader may depend on certain political tools, such as the Anti-Hopping Law, and the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed among the component blocks of the coalition: PH, BN, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).

However, James Chin dismissed the MoU as a mere public relations exercise, stating, “if we speak to the real players in the game right, they will tell you that the MoU is not worth the paper it signed on.”

He added that with the current Anti-Hopping Bill, it could be easier for the government to fall as it will no longer be just one or two Members of Parliament (MP) to defect from the coalition, but the entire party has to defect. For example, UMNO with 26 seats, and GPS with 23 seats in the current government.

“One of these pulls out, then the government is very shaky and may fall. So it is actually much easier with the Anti-Hopping Bill for governments to fall, because when you defect, the entire party has to defect.“

Dr Lim stated that while the MoU can provide common ground for the parties, its most important aspect is the discipline and control of dissident MPs and ADUNs, which is explicitly stated.

As the MoU lacks clarity on policies, it is therefore important for the parties to combine their election promises and manifestos to establish a governing guideline and roadmap.

Influence of ‘green-wave’ restrained if opposition fails to cast doubts on Govt

Regarding the opposition coalition’s attempts to destabilize the Anwar Ibrahim administration, Prof Chin stated that those involved in politics aim to capture or be in government.

“So in Malaysia, because the government has been formed through the fractious the last two times, people are thinking that, forget about the election since the election cannot come back with a decisive winner, so we might as well go for Coalition post-election.“

Dr Lim suggested that the opposition may have learned from their previous experience in the first PH administration and see this as an opportunity to play the racial and religious card while championing Bumiputera/Malay rights.

After five years of being locked out of federal government resources, the potential for Pakatan Harapan to regain popularity under Anwar’s leadership exists if the Unity government succeeds.

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This could also mean that the growing influence of the ‘green-wave’ or PAS uprising would be restrained if the opposition does not attempt to cast doubts on the government.

PAS unlikely to leave PN, for now

Despite the corruption charges against Muhyiddin and his declining influence in the coalition, James Chin believes that PAS is unlikely to leave the PN coalition because they still need a coalition to win in the elections.

“But the fact that Muhyiddin and all the (BERSATU) senior leadership are gonna be charged for corruption, this in fact strengthened PAS. This means that Hadi Awang will basically be the shadow leader of Perikatan now as Muhyiddin is out of the picture.“

Dr Lim added that while PAS is strong on its own, it recognized the need to partner with BERSATU to win enough seats to form the government in the last election.

“But PAS understands that if they go alone they could also hardly win enough seats to form the government, PAS picked the wise choice in partnering with BERSATU. “

He suggested that PAS may choose to distance itself from BERSATU should the latter continue to decline under Anwar’s government’s strategic political moves.

“You can already see that PAS did not come to defend BERSATU so strongly on the corruption charges when the latter is facing tremendous political pressure. This should remind you about the realpolitik and pragmatic politics that PAS has excelled and demonstrated in the past two decades.”

Will there be another Green tsunami?

On the topic of whether there will be another “Green Tsunami” in the coming Six States Election, Prof Chin said it is currently too early to make any predictions.

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He stated that it would depend on various factors such as the mood during the Hari Raya festive season and how much money the government throws down, for example, the Special Aidilfitri assistance of RM700 for civil servants and RM350 for pensioners announced in Budget 2023.

“The idea is to create a very good mood,” he believed that it might impact how the Malay community will vote.

“I think people are much more careful now, if you look at the voting pattern the last time around, a lot of the Malay community actually made-up their mind quite late in the game, so closer to the date, we will know much more accurately.“

Original news link: https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2023/03/22/is-another-government-collapse-imminent-in-malaysia-political-analysts-share-their-thoughts/