Wednesday, January 21, 2015

你愿意住多远?


在德国汉诺威攻读博士学位时,记得有位女同事要搬离市中心。我问她为何不在城市里找房子,她回答说已在20公里外的小镇物色了一间价廉物美的独立式住宅。对她来说,上班通勤不是问题,有好几个方法可选择:乘搭火车加步行40分钟、开车25分钟,或若时间允许骑脚车大概要一个小时多。

回想如今身在槟岛的我,每天从南部往北通勤,区区12公里的路段,开车要45分钟,搭巴士加步行需1小时15分钟,别提可安全骑脚车上下班。

根据经合组织(OECD2011年的报告,成员国人民的平均单程通勤时间为38分钟;爱尔兰、丹麦,瑞典和美国的通勤时间少于30分钟,南非和韩国则需耗时55分钟以上。另外,德国2007年的一份研究报告显示,工作通勤耗时越长,员工的生活满意指数显著下滑。

再看我国吉隆坡-巴生谷一带的交通网,不难发现上下班高峰时间主干道路堵塞到瘫痪,公共交通也无效率。近十年来,都市人口迅速膨胀车辆越多,相信大部分往市中心的上班族通勤都需至少一小时。奈何较能负担得起的新房子距离市中心越来越远,结果年轻上班族陷入困境:如何取舍理想蜗居地点?

我到了适婚年龄有购房需求,但薪水只属于中产阶级。环顾接近工作地点的槟岛东北部房价,甭说排屋,仅是公寓的平方尺价码都让我望房兴叹。

根据槟城研究院同事不久前的计算,如果一家两口仅靠中间40%中产阶级的平均家庭收入,最多只能负担一间30万令吉以下的房屋。

从国家房地产资讯中心(NAPIC)的数据得知,目前全国平均房价为283千令吉,而槟城房价高于全国平均值,达337千令吉。槟岛和威省的房价差别甚大--以中等值来计算,在槟岛东北部买一间排屋或公寓的价钱,足以让我买下隔岸威省的三间排屋或公寓!

记得曾有房地产代理写道,在热门地区房价飙高,购屋者难辞其咎。他说那是市场力量——当购屋者都一窝蜂往相同的热门地点寻求理想房子,房屋需求大增,房价自然船高水涨。他不明白年轻人为何不肯搬远一点。即使不谈搬过去对岸,在岛上只要有人肯越过山岭补上多10公里的路程,浮罗山背仍有远较便宜且大间的房子。

我明白房地产市场的运作道理,但我不苟同购买方要背负房价高涨的原罪。除了发展商和产业投机份子,我认为城市规划才是重点。人民应该诘问政府的是:为何大部分经济活动集中在某个都市地区,而地方没有平衡发展?既然市内的可负担房子少,政府会否增建更多中低廉价屋再确保公平分配给符合资格的人?还有,既然都市化造成大部分人住得远,为何公共交通衔接网和班次频率仍欠理想?


听说在吉隆坡的一般房价就已近百万令吉。友人在面书上笑说,吉隆坡人很多已是百万富翁了。我心想,百万“负翁”应该也还真不少。


本文刊登于《火箭报》2015年1月1日期刊

Wednesday, January 07, 2015

In response to my friend (on FB)

In response to my friend suggesting Selangor Government should run better private schools to show what they can do for education

To me, it is not the state government but the (federal) opposition coalition should come up with a detailed policy paper on education, and that should be served as Pakatan Rakyat’s alternative education blueprint. Should they come to power, this is what they propose to do, with detailed problem-solution analysis approach. Although PR politicians often brag about the Buku Jingga (PR’s common policy framework), many PR representatives never really read through them thoroughly and never seem to cite them often for mentioning the relevant alternative policy.

To me also, that Buku Jingga is simply not enough, and at times I don’t feel it is professional and thoughtful enough for certain policies. One of the bigger problems for the Buku Jingga is that, they distributed the drafting jobs among politicians and think-tanks affiliated with political parties. It would have been so much better if they can allocate more time to rope in relevant experts in thei field and form a consultation panel for each big distinctive policy area. Each panel should come out with a detailed policy paper to show that they have done sufficient analyses and studies, therefore they have better ideas how to tackle the most pressing issues more professionally. Each policy should be set for medium and long term sustainable goal, so this can deter some ill-thought populist measures put out just to fish for votes.

Back to education reform policy, I do not agree with you Kok Boon to set up a competitive private system just to show the state can run better private schools than the federal government runs public schools. You just missed the point. Government is the authority body taking control/care of public matters. Public schools and the central education system are the focus points for reform, not private schools. Private schools are not to replace the public schools.

What Kim Boon said is not wrong in that Education falls under the jurisdiction power of the federal government, but I would argue that that does not mean Selangor state government should just sit there and do nothing without proposing any alternative education policy. For long some number of PR politicians talking about decentralisation of power from the federal government, so what if the next day federal government agrees to do so, then how would the state government run the public schools differently to BN?

Pakatan Rakyat, if they seriously aspire to become the next federal government and now position themselves as the responsible government-in-waiting, should have already a good alternative education plan to convince us that they can run public education system better than BN if they were elected in the next round. I don’t want to see people like Tony Pua, Rafizi and etc. to give their individual opinions,  I want to know what PR exactly is offering us.
To me, important issues to be addressed are i) the deliberate unequal/imbalance of development resources allocated for different streams of public schools,  ii) sliding standard of Maths and Science, English language command, creative and independent thinking skills, iii) Education that fosters learning capability, but not exam-orientated system, iv) academic freedom and professionalism in the tertiary education.

Sometimes I wonder why an opposition party in Singapore like SDP (yourSDP.org), even though they are without a seat in the parliament, yet they can yet come out with a number of detailed policy papers on the most gripping national issues. I noticed also that SDP politicians have such habit: after criticising PAP on various questionable policies, they will propose their party alternative based on their papers to woo support already. Of course no party can win the election just because they have good series of policy papers publication, but this has showed how professional and committed is the political party to offer alternatives to people. People can understand and indeed are given the real political choices, not just different logos.


The Buku Jingga is the common policy framework only, the ‘compromised’ consensus among three parties. It is so common sometimes it sounds just vague and a bit populist. After 505, I have even vague idea about what Pakatan Rakyat is offering to the rakyat, after the infighting among these parties throughout the last year. Are they still serious as the government-in-waiting?

Monday, January 05, 2015

Bravo, Tapway!

Entrepreneur startup is never easy, failure is usually the norm for majority of the new ventures.

Creative and innovative ideas, good marketing strategies, commitment, perseverance , good decision-making and boldness in risk-taking are the characteristics for firms that can successfully survive, emerge and develop.

Therefore I am happy for my brother Chee How. For the whole last year, he must have endured the difficult beginning stage after committing himself full time to his company.

Now his company, Tapway, is listed in the top 18 Malaysian startup firms that have potential to breakthrough this year by Tech In Asia page. It is a good recognition, although i think he has achieved much more than that. Wish him all the best!!

Here let me do some free promotion for his company lah

https://www.techinasia.com/malaysian-startups-2015/

here is the descrption taken from the page:

Tapway

tapway google analytics for physical stores
Did you know that 94 percent of total retail sales are being generated in brick-and-mortar stores, according to market research firm eMarketer? For this reason alone, Tapway – which CEO Lim Chee How dubs the “Google Analytics for the offline world” – makes a whole lot of sense.
According to Lim, offline stores simply don’t have access to actionable data that they can use to improve the customer experience – and Tapway provides just that. The team deliberately kept a low profile as they ran beta tests in the past few months, but have recently come out with guns blazing, winning the ‘Best Startup in Malaysia’ title in the local leg of the Seedstars World 2014 competition, and recently pitching at Korea’s DreamPlus Day 2014.
Now, they’re looking to raise between MYR500,000 (US$154,000) to MYR800,000 (US$247,000) to capture the Malaysian market and continue to come up with more creative solutions.

高收入未必就是先进国

2014年来到尾声,仅剩最后年给马来西亚追赶冲刺晋身为先进国。首相纳吉今年信誓旦旦地说,过去三年政府的经济转型计划(ETP)已见成效,我国有望在2020年之前就成为高收入先进国。随后,第二财政部长阿末胡斯尼也呼应说,马来西亚2018就能达至一万五千美元的年收入目标,尽管今年才突破了一万五百美元的水平。其实不只纳吉与财长,很多人似乎有这种迷思,以为高收入国就是先进国。

“先进国”这个概念和定义,迄今仍无国际共识。从经济方面来看,先进国的其中一项重要指标是有高人均收入(per capita income)和高国内人均生产总值(GDP per capita)。有者以工业发展为标准;拥有第三和第四级产业(tertiary and quaternary sector)分布的高度工业国一般上是先进国。近年也用人类发展指数 (Human Development Index - HDI) 来衡量和分辨先进国与发展中国家。平均预期寿命(Life Expectancy)和教育水平都囊括在HDI的计算中,先进国的HDI排名通常名列前茅。

无论是国际货币基金或世界银行,都没把高收入国诸如中东产油国卡达尔、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋等列为先进国。卡达尔的人均收入大约有九万三千美元,是我国的大约九倍,甚至比澳洲和美国还高。加勒比海岛国如波多黎各和巴哈马的人均收入也在两万美元以上,但这些国家并不属于先进国。可见高收入不是先进国的绝对条件。

我国的HDI仅排在尴尬的第62位,而且还排在太平洋小国帛琉(Palau)和内战后重建的非洲国家利比亚之后。1980年代以降,我国的工业发展颇有小成就,以致经济结构不至于单一如中东产油国。问题是如今的制造业转型缓慢甚至停滞。劳工密集、代工型的工业仍普遍存在,每年却大量流失知识经济转型所需的高知识高技能专才。面对经济价值链攀升阻力,又如何能有效地大大提高国民平均收入呢?

即使要谈达到高收入的目标,仍是个大疑问。随着近期国际油价大跌、令吉疲软,明年消费税推行后通货膨胀势在必行,国家人均收入要在五年内增长50%,达到一万五千美元,实在不简单。1990年代的近双位数经济成长已不复再,而近年国内生产值的增幅只得5%至6%左右。以目前的收入水平推算下去,国家经济成长每年要维持至少8%的水平或以上才可跻身为高收入国。

根据今年的资料显示,我国国民薪金收入总值仅占GDP33.6%,而泰国和韩国的国民收入占超过60%GDP。我国正处于富国家、富企业,穷人民的现象。到底是不是高收入国,对人民有那么意义?

还记得前首相马哈迪的“2020宏愿”里迈向先进国的九项挑战吗?那个所谓有道德爱心、民主自由公正、人文物质发展并重的进步繁荣社会,如今怎么都简化为只谈高收入?抑或人们都像马哈迪惯性选择性健忘?


一场豪雨就能令首都各地和机场“积水”的“先浸国”,你自豪了吗?


本文刊登于《火箭报》2014年12月15日期刊