Is another government collapse imminent in Malaysia? (TOC , 22 March)

 Earlier this month, Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang, the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) president, defended the Perikatan National (PN) coalition’s right to continue its plan to overthrow the Unity Government.

Hadi Awang, Deputy Chairman of the biggest opposition coalition PN in the parliament, said toppling a government is normal in politics.

“We see signs indicating that in this mixed government, there is dissatisfaction among its own components. It happens. That is why something like this is not impossible,” he told reporters on 6 March.

Malaysia has been embroiled in political turmoil for the past four years, culminating in the infamous “Sheraton Move” in 2022 that led to the downfall of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government – which ended Barisan Nasional’s (BN) dominance in Malaysia that had lasted for over half a century.

Hence, it is understandable that PAS President Hadi Awang’s recent remarks have drawn criticism for dishonouring the Malaysian King’s wish for political stability and his majesty’s advice for political leaders to focus on economic recovery.

However, is there a possibility of another government collapse in Malaysia, as suggested by PAS president?

No surprise for Hadi Awang on overthrowing Govt

According to James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, Hadi Awang is sending a signal that he wants strong support from the Malay community in the upcoming state elections.

“When Hadi Awang talked about all this, and also increasing racist statements towards the non-Malay community in Malaysia, he is doing this with an eye on the upcoming six state elections, so we should not be surprised about the fact that he’s always talking about the overthrow of the current government.”

The six states — Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan, Selangor, and Terengganu — have agreed to dissolve their respective state assemblies in the last two weeks of June, with polls due later this year.

Unity government understands PN’s threat

Dr Lim Chee Han, Co-founder of Agora Society Malaysia, notes that the current unity government, which is composed of Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Zahid’s Barisan National, already saw the threat of PN challenging them in many seats.

“So, both sides took the position that the best defence is offence: Anwar’s government wastes no time to pin down BERSATU leaders, trying to create a rift and cleavage between BERSATU and PAS.”

Dr Lim, who is also a senior researcher at Third World Network, an international non-profit research and advocacy organisation, said PH must have remembered well from the first PH government, the coalition government just started to crack after the anti-ICERD rallies at the end of 2018.

PH later suffered continuous losses in a streak of by-elections, and popularity and its approval ratings started to decline. The new political reality forced the hands of BERSATU to break away from PH.

In Dr Lim’s opinion, Hadi Awang is trying to divert attention and launch his offence to the Unity government – though the word choice of ‘overthrow’ is controversial.

“Given the Anti-hopping laws do give leeway for political parties to choose their own coalition, the new governing coalition reshuffling might not be impossible, but for what reasons/benefits the current governing members want to ‘jump ship’ to be with PN? ”

“Currently I really see no apparent reason this could happen, unless in near future Anwar messes it up the coalition members’ relationship,” Dr Lim said.

Recent arrests and charges a ‘tremendous big blow’ to BERSATU

According to Dr Lim, the recent arrests and charges of BERSATU leaders have dealt a tremendous blow to the party’s leaders. Their party account has been frozen, which means they cannot operate their cash flow and pay their rent and staff.

“How could they be prepared for the upcoming six state elections? And all their donation proceeds are stuck there; the financial war chest is rendered useless now.”

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Dr Lim also expressed concern that the prosecution has tainted BERSATU leaders with corruption, undermining their previous anti-corruption campaign during GE15.

While there may be political reasons and selective prosecution behind the investigations, there is also the question of how the party obtained the money and who their paymasters were.

Professor Chin, on the other hand, believes that the recent prosecution of BERSATU leaders will not significantly alter the political landscape of Malaysia.

“Everybody understands that the current unwavering government does not enjoy the support of the majority of the Malay voters.”

Anwar’s unity government does not enjoy the support of the majority of the Malay voters

James Chin pointed out that the majority of Malay voters sided with BERSATU and PAS, which together garnered more Malay votes than UMNO and PKR (Parti Keadilan Rakyat led by Anwar Ibrahim).

“So the current charges is all about positioning in this case, BERSATU has been positioning themselves as the clean version of UMNO. “

In other words, BERSATU is trying to convince Malay voters to vote for them by presenting themselves as a Malay nationalist party that is also clean, unlike UMNO.

“So by being charged with corruption, they cannot use that (moral high ground) anymore in the coming elections.”

Anwar needs to win at least three states in the upcoming six State Elections

According to Prof Chin, the current political instability in Malaysia is expected to be resolved by the upcoming six-state elections.

“If Anwar wants to lead a stable government, he has to win a minimum of three states, and the three states are Negeri Sembilan, Penang and Selangor.“

Prof Chin also highlighted that if Pakatan Harapan manages to win Kedah, it would be a significant signal that Anwar’s government has won back the Malay ground.

Dr Lim commented that both Zahid and Anwar need each other to make it through this political turmoil.

“Without UMNO in the government, without the governing resources, Zahid’s position as UMNO president is becoming untenable. Without UMNO in the governing coalition make-up, the coalition is also unstable; it gives even stronger bullets to the opposition that the government is basically lacking in bumiputera/Malay’s strong presence.”

Therefore, Dr Lim suggests that UMNO’s decision to stay in the governing coalition would be the primary concern for the unity government.

Much easier for Malaysian Govt to fall if whole big block in coalition withdraws

In order to ensure the stability of the unity government, Anwar Ibrahim as the coalition leader may depend on certain political tools, such as the Anti-Hopping Law, and the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed among the component blocks of the coalition: PH, BN, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS).

However, James Chin dismissed the MoU as a mere public relations exercise, stating, “if we speak to the real players in the game right, they will tell you that the MoU is not worth the paper it signed on.”

He added that with the current Anti-Hopping Bill, it could be easier for the government to fall as it will no longer be just one or two Members of Parliament (MP) to defect from the coalition, but the entire party has to defect. For example, UMNO with 26 seats, and GPS with 23 seats in the current government.

“One of these pulls out, then the government is very shaky and may fall. So it is actually much easier with the Anti-Hopping Bill for governments to fall, because when you defect, the entire party has to defect.“

Dr Lim stated that while the MoU can provide common ground for the parties, its most important aspect is the discipline and control of dissident MPs and ADUNs, which is explicitly stated.

As the MoU lacks clarity on policies, it is therefore important for the parties to combine their election promises and manifestos to establish a governing guideline and roadmap.

Influence of ‘green-wave’ restrained if opposition fails to cast doubts on Govt

Regarding the opposition coalition’s attempts to destabilize the Anwar Ibrahim administration, Prof Chin stated that those involved in politics aim to capture or be in government.

“So in Malaysia, because the government has been formed through the fractious the last two times, people are thinking that, forget about the election since the election cannot come back with a decisive winner, so we might as well go for Coalition post-election.“

Dr Lim suggested that the opposition may have learned from their previous experience in the first PH administration and see this as an opportunity to play the racial and religious card while championing Bumiputera/Malay rights.

After five years of being locked out of federal government resources, the potential for Pakatan Harapan to regain popularity under Anwar’s leadership exists if the Unity government succeeds.

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This could also mean that the growing influence of the ‘green-wave’ or PAS uprising would be restrained if the opposition does not attempt to cast doubts on the government.

PAS unlikely to leave PN, for now

Despite the corruption charges against Muhyiddin and his declining influence in the coalition, James Chin believes that PAS is unlikely to leave the PN coalition because they still need a coalition to win in the elections.

“But the fact that Muhyiddin and all the (BERSATU) senior leadership are gonna be charged for corruption, this in fact strengthened PAS. This means that Hadi Awang will basically be the shadow leader of Perikatan now as Muhyiddin is out of the picture.“

Dr Lim added that while PAS is strong on its own, it recognized the need to partner with BERSATU to win enough seats to form the government in the last election.

“But PAS understands that if they go alone they could also hardly win enough seats to form the government, PAS picked the wise choice in partnering with BERSATU. “

He suggested that PAS may choose to distance itself from BERSATU should the latter continue to decline under Anwar’s government’s strategic political moves.

“You can already see that PAS did not come to defend BERSATU so strongly on the corruption charges when the latter is facing tremendous political pressure. This should remind you about the realpolitik and pragmatic politics that PAS has excelled and demonstrated in the past two decades.”

Will there be another Green tsunami?

On the topic of whether there will be another “Green Tsunami” in the coming Six States Election, Prof Chin said it is currently too early to make any predictions.

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He stated that it would depend on various factors such as the mood during the Hari Raya festive season and how much money the government throws down, for example, the Special Aidilfitri assistance of RM700 for civil servants and RM350 for pensioners announced in Budget 2023.

“The idea is to create a very good mood,” he believed that it might impact how the Malay community will vote.

“I think people are much more careful now, if you look at the voting pattern the last time around, a lot of the Malay community actually made-up their mind quite late in the game, so closer to the date, we will know much more accurately.“

Original news link: https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2023/03/22/is-another-government-collapse-imminent-in-malaysia-political-analysts-share-their-thoughts/

森林保护是防洪的前沿上策

 气候变化带来的破坏及影响越来越严重，暴雨来袭似乎更频密而且更强烈。马来西亚许多高风险的地区，更常看到灾难性的水灾和土崩事件。大家可能还记得近年来在我国所发生的严重洪灾事件，而这些灾害祸地，在过去几十年前这些现象倒是罕见。

根据联合国2021年的研究报告，除了被列为“暴雨”的天数增加之外，我国的年度降雨量强度也有明显增加：对比30年前，2000年至2007年期间，一小时、三小时和六小时的降雨长度的发生率分别增加了17%、29%和31%。

报告还发现，大约2万9800平方公里的我国土地或会受到年度洪水的影响，多达500万人可能处于风险之中。据估计，在12年后，仅因气候变化而可能遭受极端河流水位上升造成洪水波及的人口就有10万2290人。

毋庸置疑，政府必须提早规划和投资于防洪措施。前任首相依斯迈沙比里领导的政府当时宣布，从2023年到2030年将增拨150亿令吉，平均每年支出19亿令吉来防洪。

这笔增加的财政预算拨款将用于几个项目，以加强防洪减灾努力。在最新修订的2023年联邦财政预算案当中，主要的高额支出拨款项目是用于：一、防洪计划（RTB）和城市排水（10亿令吉），二、河口疏浚（2.08亿令吉），三、防止海岸侵蚀（1.77亿令吉），四、提升基础设施和城市排水、防洪（1.18亿令吉）。

然而，我认为，洪水的发生及其造成的严重影响，不能纯粹归咎于降雨量的增加和气候变化。只有当造成水灾的其他原因（除了雨水）能够获得正视和积极解决时，减轻洪灾冲击的措施才能奏效。因此，我促请政府考虑通过宪报森林保留地和重新造林，作为防洪措施的前沿上策。

相比之下，我在2023年财政预算案中发现，目前的生物多样性保护生态财政转移计划（Ecological Fiscal Transfer for Biodiversity Conservation，EFT）只获得分配了1.5亿令吉，约占防洪拨款的8%。

EFT是一个各级政府之间财政转移机制，根据商定的原则和优先政策，将联邦拨款分配给各州政府，目的是要保持或扩大森林保护区的面积大小和质量。自2019年起，EFT已成为了联邦政府的政策。

应展示领导人政治意愿

这个数字与联邦政府今年拨款给推广旅游项目的数额相比又如何？推广旅游项目获得2.5亿令吉。政府还计划耗费4.8亿令吉，欲在金马仑高原兴建从哈布到丹那拉塔的新道路，以缓解交通拥堵。单单这一条新道路已是今年EFT拨款的三倍。

政府应通过未来的EFT拨款预算，展示领导人的政治意愿和承诺。有关防洪减灾的拨款预算，政府也应考虑采纳类似EFT方案，尤其是拨款给位于洪水灾害风险地区，加强保护森林。政府应把更多的努力集中在水灾问题源头，这样才能有效防止灾难一再发生，因为森林是最好的天然集水区，可以减少土壤侵蚀以及河流的淤积。

群议社社长林奕慧就曾撰文论证，为何建造更多的防洪水坝，从长远之计来看，对防洪目的来说是没有帮助的。那是因为有更多的淤泥会在水坝堆积，进而降低了控制和阻挡径流水的效果。但为何会有更多的淤泥？那是因为砍伐森林意味著更多的土壤可能被冲下河或进入排水系统，而那里的树木曾经帮助稳住了这些土壤不让流失。

挖掘加深河床和建造混凝土水坝或防洪屏障或只能是被动的短期应急措施，这些措施对环境造成了更深远的严重影响，特别是这些建设或机械工程对周遭环境的破坏、对河川生态系统构成了重大伤害，其中包括摧毁了鱼类和其他水生生物的生态环境。若能，政府应尽量避免这些工程，让自然环境成为防洪的最前线堡垒。

刊登于《東方日報》《群議良策》專欄2023年4月5日 

東方臉書鏈接

𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (Unedited original article)

𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

𝘔𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘥𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘌𝘍𝘛, 𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦!

The impact of climate change in the form of more frequent and more intense rainstorms are becoming more severe. Many vulnerable communities in Malaysia are prone to disastrous floods and landslides. People may recall the incidence of severe floods in Malaysia which took place in recent years, compared to decades ago when floods were rare in the places where recent floods have occurred.

According to the UN Research Report 2021, in addition to the increase in the number of days classified as "heavy rainfall", the maximum annual rainfall intensity has also increased significantly: 17%, 29% and 31% increases in the occurrence of one-hour, three-hour and six-hour rain periods were observed between 2000 and 2007, compared to the periods 30 years ago.

The report also found that some 29,800 square kilometres of land would likely be affected by annual flooding. As many as 5 million people could be at risk. The population likely to be affected by extreme river flooding alone as a result of climate change is estimated at 102,290 people in 12 years' time.

Undoubtedly, it is important for the government to plan and invest in flood mitigation. The previous Ismail Sabri-led government announced that an additional RM15 billion would be allocated from 2023 to 2030, an average expenditure of RM1.9 billion per year.

This increased budget allocation would be used for several projects to strengthen flood mitigation. In the latest revised Budget 2023, the major high expenditure allocations are for: i) Flood Mitigation Plan (RTB) and Urban Drainage (RM1 billion), ii) Dredging of river mouths (RM208 million), iii) Prevention of coastal erosion (RM177 million), iv) Upgrading of Infrastructure and urban drainage, flood mitigation (RM118 million).

However, I argue that the occurrence of floods and the severity of their impacts cannot be attributed solely to increased rainfall and climate change. Flood mitigation can only be effective if the other causes of flooding (besides rain) can be addressed. I urge the government to consider forest protection via gazettement and reforestation as the frontline of flood prevention measures.

What I found in Budget 2023, by comparison, is that only RM150 million is allocated for the current Ecological Fiscal Transfer for Biodiversity Conservation (EFT) programme, which is about 8% of the amount allocated for flood mitigation.

The EFT is a form of intergovernmental fiscal transfer mechanism and redistribution of federal allocations to state governments, based on agreed principles and priorities, with the aim of maintaining or increasing the size and quality of protected forest areas. This programme has been implemented as a federal government policy since 2019.

How does this figure compare to the amount allocated by the federal government for tourism promotion this year? RM250 million. The government also plans to spend RM480 million to build new roads from Habu to Tanah Rata in the Cameron Highlands to ease traffic congestion. This one project is already three times this year's EFT allocation.

The government should demonstrate political intent and commitment by reflecting these measures in future EFT budget allocations. Similar EFT programmes should be considered in the flood mitigation budget, especially for projects located in Flood Hazard Map areas. Additional efforts should focus on stopping the problem at its source, as forests are the best natural water catchment, reducing soil erosion and siltation of our rivers.

My colleague Lim Yi Hui has previously argued why building more sabo dams will not help flood control in the long term, as more silt accumulates at the dam, reducing the effectiveness of a barrier to hold back the runoff water. But why more silt? Because deforestation means more soil could be washed down the river and into the drainage system where trees used to help hold it back.

Deepening riverbeds and building concrete dams or flood barriers are only the reactive measures which pose a more severe environmental impact, particularly environmentally damaging with significant harm to river ecosystems, including the removal of habitats for fish and other aquatic organisms.

More funding needed to protect forests for frontline flood prevention

 

As a result of climate change, rainstorms are increasingly frequent and more intense..

Many vulnerable communities in Malaysia live in areas that are prone to floods and landslides.

People may have observed that floods have occurred more often and in a more severe form in recent years than they had in the past.

According to the UN Research Report 2021, in addition to the increase in the number of days classified as “heavy rainfall”, the maximum annual rainfall intensity has also increased significantly. It was observed in 2000-2007 that the latter grew 17%, 29% and 31% in the occurrence of one-hour, three-hour and six-hour rain periods, respectively, compared to 30 years ago.

The report also found that 29,800sq km of land would likely be affected by annual flooding.

As many as five million people could be at risk. The population likely to be affected by extreme river flooding alone as a result of climate change is estimated at 102,290 people in 12 years’ time.

It is vital for the government to plan and invest in flood mitigation.

The previous Ismail Sabri-led government announced that RM15 billion would be allocated to flood mitigation projects from 2023 to 2030, which works out to RM1.9 billion per year.

In Budget 2023, the major expenditure allocations are for: flood mitigation and urban drainage (    RM1 billion); dredging of river mouths (RM208 million); prevention of coastal erosion (RM177 million); and upgrading of infrastructure and urban drainage, flood mitigation (RM118 million).

However, I argue that the frequency and severity of floods cannot be attributed solely to increased rainfall and climate change. Flood mitigation can only be effective if the other causes of flooding is addressed.

I urge the government to consider gazetting and reforesting our forests as a frontline flood prevention measure.

What I found in Budget 2023 is that only RM150 million has been set aside for the current Ecological Fiscal Transfer for Biodiversity Conservation (EFT) programme, which amounts to about 8% of the allocation for flood mitigation.

The EFT is a intergovernmental fiscal transfer mechanism and redistribution of federal funds to state governments, based on agreed principles and priorities, with the aim of maintaining or increasing the size and quality of protected forest areas. The programme was implemented as federal government policy from 2019.

How does this figure compare to the amount allocated by the federal government for tourism promotion this year? RM250 million.

The government also plans to spend RM480 million on new roads from Habu to Tanah Rata in Cameron Highlands to ease traffic congestion. This one project is already three times this year’s EFT allocation.

The government should show political intent and commitment in future EFT budget allocations.

Similar programmes should be considered for inclusion in the flood mitigation budget, especially for projects located in flood hazard map areas.

Additional efforts should focus on stopping the problem at its source, as forests are the best natural water catchment, reducing soil erosion and siltation of our rivers.

My colleague Lim Yi Hui argues that building more sabo dams will not help flood control in the long term, as more silt accumulates in the dam and reduces the effectiveness of barriers to hold back the runoff water.

More silt, because deforestation means more soil could be washed down the river and into the drainage system where trees used to help hold it back.

Deepening riverbeds and building concrete dams or flood barriers are only reactive measures which have a severe environmental impact, particularly on river ecosystems because they destroy the habitats of aquatic animals.

145th article for Agora@TMI column, published on The Malaysian Insight, 27 Mar 2023 

是时候制定政治献金法

 

前首相慕尤丁的受贿和洗钱7项指控已让公众哗然，因涉及金额超过2.3亿令吉。尽管这让人大开眼界，但与另一位前首相纳吉相比这不算什么，后者在一马公司丑闻中，因将6.81亿美元（30亿令吉）注入个人账户而被提控多项贪污罪名，其中在挪用SRC国际公司4200万令吉一案中，巳罪名成立，目前正在服刑。当他们被指控索取这些资金时，他们是时任首相。

这响钟应当足以让人们关注金钱政治的问题，特别是政治献金如何影响或操纵选举结果，破坏自由和公平的选举民主。纳吉挪用的资金延长了2013年大选后的一届首相任期，慕尤丁的政治献金极可能导致他在上次大选中大有斩获，取得比预期更好的成绩。

能否仅仅责怪土著团结党涉贪呢？很难说，这就是为何慕尤丁的前首席机要秘书马祖基呼吁反贪委员会调查人民公正党和民主行动党的账目，以证明该机构没有选择性提控政治对手。

一个政党一般可通过三种方式来筹集资金：一、基层筹款，二、既得利益者（通常是大户捐献者）的私人捐款，三、公共资金。

目前，我国没为政党提供公共资金。许多传统政党凭著长年累积的基层党员，会通过会员费和各种形式的支持者自愿众筹，在基层筹款方面会有明显占更大的优势。反之，新成立的政党可能会遇到筹款难题，不容易获得足够数量的支持。

即使有了这些基层筹款的血汗劳力和参与式民主的良好示范，这笔资金仍可能不足以支付一个政党的所有费用，如日常运作（工资、水电和租金）、课题宣导、政策研究和政治宣传，以及最终最耗费的选举。

无人监控财团政治献金

大多数政党或许不会立即拒绝来自既得利益集团的私人捐款。除非相关部门开始调查可能涉及的不法行为，否则没有任何法律或法规可以直接监控这种资金流动。利益集团可能会提供几万、几十万甚至几百万令吉的捐款，但这类型的捐款很少会没有附加条件。这样的注资或不会签合约阐明条件，但这自然会产生一种期望，即政党胜选当权就会回报他们。

对捐献者来说，这更像是一笔投资，而不是出自他们对该党的真正热爱和支持。哪有那么热心爱党的支持者会理智地宣布投入2.3亿令吉的免费资金供该党使用？这是不寻常的。这就是为何土团党出事了。该党支持者一定感觉受到打压和为难，发现自己现有的处境是因为站在了政治的对立面。

一个没有法律限制的政治献金是一个大问题，因为选民不知道谁是该党背后撑腰的金主—这些金主们如何不正当地影响甚至操控了该党制定政策方面的议程和方向。可以想像制药厂对医疗政策、发展商对土地和环境政策、金融业对市场经济政策的影响，而这些利益集团要的极可能对公共利益造成伤害。让政治献金的多寡决定了政策走向是破坏民主精神的做法。

显然，当务之急是要减少政党对少数的大金主和既得利益者的依赖，这正是为何需要制定政治献金法──为健康的民主竞争打造一个公平的竞争环境。

针对个人和公司的政治献金需要有一个顶限数额。在去年8月由以政治献金为题的全党议会团体（APPG）起草的国会私人法案中，建议针对个人和公司的每年法定捐款顶限分别为5万和10万令吉。另外，外国人或公司，以及官联公司将不被允许捐款。为了方便监督和执法，所有筹款必须通过一个指定的政党银行账户，不能再通过个别的政党支部或政治人物的个人账户筹款。

政府应成立政治献金委员会，以监督政党每年需提交的财务报告，检阅政党的大户捐献者名单、确保执法的过程管理妥当。该委员会最好由享有公众信任和支持的独立委员组成，由联邦财政预算支付薪金和营运消费，并直接对国会负责以避免被行政机关操控。

公共资金分配各党

公共资金应是政治献金法的一个重要部分，以鼓励和争取各政党支持该法案，因为他们已必须遵守捐款限额和通报要求，公共资金将会是实在的好处弥补私人筹款局限。APPG法案中建议的公共资金数额也只需动用到联邦财政预算的0.05%或相当于1.3亿令吉，就可根据大选得票率向各政党分配公共资金。

或许大多数公众对公共资金倡议的第一反应是如此：“为什么我们需要为这些政党买单？”。可是啊，人民需要被告知，公共资金的替代选择就是鼓励各政党设法增加其私人政治献金的份额！这正是我国面对政治贪污现象的其中一个重要根源。

刊登于《東方日報》《群議良策》專欄2023年3月22日 

東方臉書鏈接

Time for political financing law (unedited original article)

Time for political financing law

Former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin's bribery and money laundering 7 charges have been brought to public attention, involving sums of more than RM230 million. It is another eye-opener, although nothing compared to another former prime minister, Najib Razak, who is serving a jail sentence for siphoning US$681 million into his personal account.. When they were accused of soliciting such funds, they were sitting prime ministers. This should make people concerned about money politics and how political funding can influence or determine election outcomes and undermine free and fair electoral democracy. Najib's money extended his tenure as prime minister in the 2013 general election, Muhyiddin's may have led to a better-than-expected result in the last general election.

Can BERSATU alone be blamed? Hardly, which is why Muhyiddin's ex-aide Marzuki Mohamad has called on the MACC to investigate the PKR and DAP books to show that there is no selective prosecution.

There are three broad ways in which a political party can normally raise funds: i) grassroots fundraising, ii) private donations from vested interests (usually big donors), iii) public funding.

At present, there is no public funding for political parties in Malaysia. Many established traditional political parties would have a greater advantage in grassroots fundraising through membership fees and various forms of voluntary crowdfunding from supporters. Newly formed political parties would then find it difficult to achieve a critical mass of support.

For all the good practices of participatory democracy and the hard work that goes into grassroots fundraising, it may or may not be enough to cover all the expenses of a political party, such as day-to-day operations (salaries, utilities and rent), issue-based campaigns, policy research and advocacy, and ultimately elections. 

It is likely that most political parties would not immediately refuse private donations from vested interests. There are no laws or regulations that directly monitor this flow of money, unless the relevant authorities start investigating possible wrongdoing. Interest groups may offer tens or hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars, but rarely would such donations come without strings attached. They may not come with explicit promises, but there would be an expectation that the party in power would return the favour. For the donors, it's more like an investment than their genuine love and support for the party - it wouldn't be normal to declare support to the tune of RM230 million free money for the party to use!

This is how things have gone wrong for BERSATU. Its supporters must be feeling the heat as they now find themselves on the wrong side of the political fence. Private funding of a party without legal limits is often a major concern because voters do not know who the big money behind the party is and what their agenda and undue influence would be in terms of policy formulation.

Reducing the party's dependence on a few big donors and vested interests would be the obvious thing to do, but this is where the need for a law on political financing comes in - it is about creating a level playing field for healthy democratic competition.

There needs to be a contribution limit for individuals and companies. In the Private Member's Bill drafted by the former APPG on Political Financing last August, the statutory limits are RM50,000 and RM100,000 per year respectively. Foreign companies and government-linked companies would not be allowed to contribute. For monitoring and regulatory purposes, all fundraising must be done through a designated party account, not through party branches or individual politicians' accounts.

The government should establish a Commission on Political Financing to oversee the monitoring, regulation and enforcement processes for political parties to submit their annual financial reports and disclose major donors. The commission should consist of independent commissioners who enjoy public confidence and support, be paid from the federal budget and be accountable to parliament.

Public funding should be a key component of the Political Financing Bill in order to motivate political parties to support the Bill because of the tangible benefits to them of having to comply with contribution limits and disclosure requirements. The amount of public funding proposed in the APPG Bill would only require 0.05% of the federal budget or the equivalent of RM130 million to start distributing public funds to political parties based on vote share.

It may also be true that the first reaction of most members of the public to the proposed public funding would be: 'why do we have to pay for these political parties?' People need to be told and persuaded that the alternative to public funding would be to de facto encourage political parties to find ways of increasing their share of private funding!

Time for political funding law

Former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin is accused of bribery and laundering more than RM230 million.

It is another eye-opener, although nothing compared to the court cases of another former prime minister, Najib Razak, who allegedly embezzled US$681 million (RM3 billion).

Muhyiddin was in office when the alleged crimes took place. Najib has been convicted of some of the charges.

People should be worried about money politics and how political funding can influence or determine election outcomes.

Najib’s money extended his tenure as prime minister in the 2013 general election; Muhyiddin’s may have led to a better-than-expected result in the last polls

Is Bersatu alone to be blamed? Hardly, which is why Muhyiddin’s ex-aide Marzuki Mohamad has called on the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission to examine PKR and DAP’s books to show that the Bersatu president is not the victim of selective prosecution.

There are three broad ways in which a political party can raise funds: grassroots fundraising, private donations from vested interests (usually big donors), and public funding.

At present, there is no public funding for political parties in Malaysia.

Many established parties would do better in grassroots fundraising through membership fees and various forms of crowdfunding.

Newly formed parties would find it difficult to achieve a critical mass of support.

For all the benefits of a participatory democracy and the hard work that goes into grassroots fundraising, it may not be enough to pay for a political party’s day-to-day expenses (salaries, utility bills and rent), issue-based campaigns, policy research and advocacy, and, ultimately, its election machinery. 

Most political parties are unlikely to immediately refuse private donations from vested interests. There are no laws or regulations to monitor this inflow of money, unless the authorities are prompted to investigate suspected wrongdoing.

Interest groups may offer tens or hundreds of thousands or even millions of ringgit, but rarely do such donations come without strings attached. The conditions may not be explicit, but there would be the expectation that the party, when in power, will return the favour. The donations are more likely an investment than borne out of true love for the party.

Bersatu’s supporters must be feeling the heat as they now find themselves on the wrong side of the political fence.

Private funding of any party without legal limits is a major concern because voters do not know who the big funders are and what is their agenda.

Obviously, the party’s dependence big donors and vested interests should be reduced, and that is where a political financing law comes in. It is about creating a level playing field for healthy democratic competition.

There must be a contribution limit for individuals and companies. A private member’s bill drafted by the former all-party parliamentary group on political financing last August sets the statutory limits at RM50,000 and RM100,000 per year, respectively.

Foreign entities and government-linked companies will not be allowed to contribute.

For monitoring and regulatory purposes, all fundraising must be done through a designated party account.
 
The government should set up a commission on political financing to oversee the monitoring, regulation and enforcement processes for political parties to submit their annual financial reports and disclose major donors.

The commission should consist of independent commissioners who enjoy public confidence, are paid from the federal budget and accountable to parliament.

Public funding should be a key component of the political funding bill to win the support of the political parties because of the tangible benefits it will offer them, given that they have to meet the contribution limits and disclosure requirements.

The public funding of political parties proposed in the all-party parliamentary groups’ bill will only require 0.05% of the federal budget, or RM130 million.

It may also be true that the first reaction of most people to the bill will be: “Why do we have to pay for these political parties?”

The people need to be told that the alternative to public funding is private funding, the results of which they have seen for themselves.

144th article for Agora@TMI column, published on The Malaysian Insight, 20 Mar 2023